In what is our smallest slate of NBA action since opening night, this Friday brings us an exciting TNT Double-Header. The first of these games takes place in Miami, as the Goran Dragic-less Heat take on the surging Houston Rockets. This is followed by an exciting Western Conference affair, as the Dallas Mavericks travel to face the slumping Los Angeles Clippers. As part of a shortened slate, we’ll provide our best spread and total bets for both games tomorrow.
Miami Heat
The Heat enter this one at 13-16, off the back of consecutive solid road wins over the Grizzlies and Jazz. News broke yesterday that star Point Guard Goran Dragic will miss 8 weeks after undergoing knee surgery. Whilst this is a huge blow, the Heat have the talent to thrive in his absence. Shooting Guard Josh Richardson is having an outstanding season so far, averaging 18.6 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 3.5 assists per game. He has been capably supported by franchise legend Dwyane Wade, who’s averaging 16.3 points, 5 assists, and 4.5 boards over his last 5.
Houston Rockets
The Rockets enter this one on a resurgent winning streak that has seen them finally break .500. James Harden has been phenomenal of late, dropping 47 points, 6 rebounds, 5 assists, and 5 steals against Utah earlier this week. Center Clint Capela is providing a nice frontcourt complement, averaging 17.2 points and 11.7 boards this season. If Chris Paul can return to his 2017/18 level, the Rockets have a real chance to rapidly climb the West standings. After a back-to-back last night, it won’t be easy for Houston here in Miami.
Predictions:
Heat +4 (Best Bet)
With almost all the action on Houston, Captain Contrarian is going the other way again. Miami enjoys a significant rest advantage in this one, playing their last game on Monday. The news of Dragic’s long-term injury will motivate this team in the short-term, starting here in prime time. Moreover, I think Houston’s strong recent form has actually overrated them in the current market. This is still a thin team that could struggle in a back-to-back. With all the action on Houston, I can see this line further moving in Miami’s favour before tip-off.
Under 208.5
Backing the underdog and under the points total is a natural complement and this is no exception. When taking a look at the games Miami has won of late, they tend to be rock fights. Without Goran Dragic, they are really devoid of perimeter playmaking in the starting lineup. Similarly, Houston’s offence hasn’t been nearly as good as last season, relying on James Harden brilliance to stay afloat. In front of the TNT cameras, I’m expecting another low-scoring tilt here that ends round 200 points.
Los Angeles Clippers
The Clippers enter this in a horrendous run of form, having lost 6 of their last 7 games to sit 17-13 and 3rd in their division. This has been despite the excellent recent play of Tobias Harris, who poured in 39 points and 11 rebounds against Portland last time out. Rookie Guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has also flashed a ton of promise, putting up 24 points and 3 assists in that same game. Despite having one of the deepest rosters in the NBA, the Clippers have struggled immensely in the absence of 6th man Lou Williams.
Dallas Mavericks
After a slow start to the season, the Mavericks enter this one at a respectable 15-14. They have one of the largest home-road dichotomies in the NBA, winning only 2 of their 13 road contests. Rookie Luca Doncic has emerged as a future star, averaging 19 points, 8.4 assists, and 7.6 rebounds over his last 5 contests. Forward Harrison Barnes is also having one of the best seasons of his career, pouring in an efficient 30 points against Denver last time out. Center DeAndre Jordan will definitely play the Clippers tough and is averaging a solid 11 points and 14 boards this season.
Predictions:
Dallas Mavericks +4
This is another scenario where all the money is coming in on the favourite and I just can’t see why. On recent form I believe the Mavericks are definitely the better team here. In Doncic, Barnes, and veteran Wesley Matthews, they’ve got a very solid wing rotation that matches up well with LA here. DeAndre Jordan will no doubt want revenge on his former team and I expect a big day on the interior for him. Through the key number of 3, I have to throw my support behind Dallas in this one.
Under 221.5
This is another one where I think the total is somewhat inflated. The Clippers have struggled offensively in the absence of Lou Williams and I don’t see them turning it around here against Dallas’ improved defence. The Mavericks have gone comfortably under this total in 4 of their last 6 games, a trend I expect to continue here. Likewise, the Clippers have been held under 100 in 2 of their last 4 games, indicative of their inconsistent shooting. Even in the modern NBA, 221.5 is a lot of points that gives us solid breathing room on the under.