Wednesday December 12, 2018

A relatively quiet NBA Wednesday awaits us here, with only 3 games on the slate today. This is highlighted by an exciting matchup in Los Angeles, as the Clippers play host to the NBA-leading Raptors. San Antonio will look for their 3rd straight win as they play host to Phoenix, whilst Houston will want to avoid a 4th straight loss against Portland. As always, let’s take a look at our 3 best spread bets and favourite multi on the board.

Houston Rockets vs Portland Trail Blazers (12pm AEDT)
Under 219.5 Points

Houston Rockets 

The Rockets enter this one at an incredibly disappointing 11-14, having lost each of their last 3 games. Shooting Guard James Harden definitely isn’t to blame, averaging an impressive 30 points, 8.3 assists, and 5.5 rebounds per game this season. Center Clint Capela also continues to beast on the inside, averaging 17.6 points and 11.8 rebounds on 65% shooting. Chris Paul is unsurprisingly looking like an overpay, shooting only 43% from the field this season. A lot of blame for the Rockets poor start should really be attributed to ownership. Consistently opting for money-saving moves has left this team bereft of NBA rotation players. 

Portland Trail Blazers 

Portland appear to have righted the ship of late, winning consecutive home games to find themselves 15-11. Point Guard Damian Lillard had a strong night last time out against Minnesota, pouring in 28 points, 8 rebounds, and 6 assists. Big man Jusuf Nurkic was also effective on the inside, adding 22 points, 11 rebounds, and 4 blocks. C.J. McCollum is quietly having another solid season, averaging 21 points and 4 boards on the campaign. If the Portland bench can deliver another stellar display, they’ve got every chance of being competitive here. 

Prediction: Under 219.5 Points 

In a game between two teams I’ve loved fading recently, the totals market is the only sensible play. Both Houston and Portland have gone under the total in each of their last 3 and I see no reason why this changes here. A lack of reliable second-unit offence should mean this total goes well under. 

San Antonio Spurs vs Phoenix Suns (12:30pm AEDT)
Under 218 Points

San Antonio Spurs 

The Spurs have had a rather middling season so far, winning consecutive games to sit at 13-14. DeMar DeRozan has been in excellent form of late, pouring in 29 points, 6.6 assists, and 6.2 rebounds over his last 5. Rudy Gay was excellent against Utah on Monday, dropping 23 points and 15 rebounds of his own. Aussie Patty Mills is providing serviceable play off the bench, averaging a shade under 10 points, 3 assists, and 3 boards per game. Welcoming the lowly Suns to town, San Antonio has an excellent shot at winning 3 straight here. 

Phoenix Suns 

The Suns have been dismal in Devin Booker’s absence and enter this one with a 4-23 record. Center Deandre Ayton has been a bright spot so far, averaging 16 points and 10 boards per night. Shooting Guard Troy Daniels has provided some much-needed scoring off the bench, scoring 13 or more in 3 of his last 4 whilst shooting 43% from 3. Small Forward Trevor Ariza has had a disappointing campaign and looks set for a mid-season move to a contender. Given their underwhelming start, the Suns will be pinning their hopes on the draft once again. 

Prediction: Under 218 points 

With how much the Suns offence has struggled of late, I’m confident going with the under here. They’ve gone under this total in 4 of their last 5 games and can’t seem to generate reliable offence. In a relatively small card, this is one of the better plays on the board. 

LA Clippers vs Toronto Raptors (2:30pm AEDT)
Raptors (-3)

Los Angeles Clippers 

The Clippers have had a surprisingly strong season so far but appear to be waning of late. They are still getting excellent production from starting Forwards Tobias Harris and Danilo Gallinari, who are combining to average 40 points and 14.5 rebounds per game. Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell have continued to be two of the league’s best bench players, both of whom are among the frontrunners for 6th man of the year. Rookie Guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is also having a very solid campaign and looks to be a future star. 

Toronto Raptors 

The Raptors have looked like the NBA’s form team so far, however, they do enter this one off consecutive losses. PG Kyle Lowry appears to be struggling with a back injury, being held scoreless in 34 minutes against Milwaukee. Kawhi Leonard is having another excellent campaign, averaging 26.1 points and 8.3 rebounds as a strong competitor for MVP. In Serge Ibaka, Pascal Siakam, and O.G. Anunoby, Toronto also have 3 versatile frontcourt defenders that fit their excellent scheme. With a matchup against Golden State tomorrow, you have to wonder whether Toronto may be looking ahead here. 

Prediction: Raptors -3 

Assuming both Kawhi Leonard and Kyle Lowry play, I think the value is on Toronto at this number. The Clippers have struggled of late and really lack the defensive ability to match up with Kawhi. With the rest advantage in this one, I expect a Toronto road win and cover here. 

Spurs, Raptors Both to Win
Combined Odds of $1.78

In a day with only 3 games, we are a bit limited for the daily multi. Whilst I expect Houston to defeat Portland, they’re overpriced at $1.35. San Antonio should comfortably defeat Phoenix at home, whilst I’m expecting a strong road win for the Raptors.