Week 8 of the NFL season brought us another set of thrilling fixtures, featuring some surprising upsets, comeback victories and restless spectators. With most teams having now played half of their 16 allocated games, we now have a much better idea of where each team stands this season. Week 9 features an impressive slate of games, highlighted by a potential game of the year in New Orleans as the Saints host the undefeated LA Rams. Detroit also travels to Minnesota, whilst Baltimore host Pittsburgh in what are sure to be two intense rivalry matches. With 10 games on the main Sunday slate, let’s take a look at our best bet for each, and provide another strong weekly multi.
Monday, November 5, 5am (AEDT), New Era Field
Buffalo Bills
The 2-6 Bills enter this matchup fresh off a 25-6 defeat to the Patriots on Monday Night Football. QB Derek Anderson has looked dreadful in his two starts, leading the offence to only 11 total points whilst also incurring 6 turnovers. This has led to defences stacking the box, really limiting the previously effective Buffalo rushing attack. Whilst the defence has fought valiantly all year, the lack of points scored by the offence means that they’ve generally been uncompetitive so far. I expect another tough outing here as they await a Chicago defence that has been dominant this year.
Chicago Bears
After consecutive losses, the 4-3 Bills bounced back nicely last week with a 14-point win over the Jets. The strong Bears rushing attack led the away, combining for 179 yards and a touchdown on 5.3 yards per carry. QB Mitchell Trubisky has had a much improved second season in the league, throwing for 1800 yards and 15 touchdowns compared to only 6 interceptions. On defence, the Bears were back to their best against New York last week. They allowed just 1 touchdown and barely over 200 yards in a dominant display. A similarly great opportunity exists this week against a Bills offence that might be the worst in the NFL.
Prediction: Bears -9.5
With how the Bills QB situation is shaking out, I just don’t see the value in backing them here. The Bears are right in the thick of the playoff race and will need to win here to keep pace with the Vikings. I expect their defence to absolutely smother Buffalo here and a few defensive scores wouldn’t surprise me. Mitchell Trubisky will continue his strong start to the campaign as the Bears cruise to victory here. Bears 24-9 Bills.
Monday, November 5, 5am (AEDT), FirstEnergy Stadium
Cleveland Browns
The Browns enter this one 2-5-1 after another loss to the division-rival Steelers. The situation got so toxic that Head Coach Hue Jackson and Offensive Coordinator Todd Haley were both relieved of their duties. QB Baker Mayfield largely struggled, averaging just 5 yards per passing attempt as the offence couldn’t get going. Rookie RB Nick Chubb has been handed the starting job but appeared to struggle last week after the trade of Carlos Hyde. Defensively, the Steelers offence proved too much for Cleveland here. RB James Conner led the way with 146 yards and 2 scores on the ground, whilst Ben Roethlisberger added another 257 yards and 2 touchdowns in the passing game. Things don’t get any easier for Cleveland this week as they welcome the high-flying Chiefs to town.
Kansas City Chiefs
The 7-1 Chiefs strengthened their grip on a first-round playoff bye with a 30-23 home win over the Denver Broncos last week. QB Patrick Mahomes led the way with over 300 yards and 4 touchdowns, putting him on pace to throw for 50 scores this season. Receiver Sammy Watkins enjoyed 107 yards and 2 of these touchdowns, whilst Tight End Travis Kelce continues to be a matchup nightmare. On defence, the Chiefs have looked somewhat improved in recent weeks. They got to QB Case Keenum 5 times and forced 2 turnovers in a complete display. With the way this offence is rolling, improved defensive performances make this team a dangerous AFC threat.
Prediction: Chiefs -8.5
It’s tough to go against teams after they’ve just fired their coach, but I really don’t rate Gregg Williams. Kansas City had their first spread loss of the season last week, but I’m comfortable rolling with them again this week. If the Cleveland defence can’t contain Mahomes and Co, they simply lack the firepower on offense to win this in a shootout. Chiefs 30-17 Browns.
Monday, November 5, 5am (AEDT), Hard Rock Stadium
Miami Dolphins
After an impressive 3-0 start, the Dolphins enter this one having lost 4 of their last 5 games. This included a horror show in Houston last week on Thursday Night Football, where they fell by 19 points. Often maligned QB Brock Osweiler hasn’t been all that bad in relief duty for Miami this season, completing 64% of his passes and enjoying a 2-1 TD-interception ratio. The strong RB duo of Kenyan Drake and Frank Gore needs to get more run for this offence to succeed. Defensively, the Dolphins have very much faded in recent weeks. They were gouged to the tune of over 400 yards and 6 touchdowns by the Texans last week, failing to register a single turnover in the process.
New York Jets
After a promising 3-3 start to the campaign, injuries have caught up to the Jets in their consecutive defeats. The performance of QB Sam Darnold has noticeably dipped in recent weeks, completing only 55% of his throws and failing to go over 200 yards in 3 of his last 5 starts. The rushing attack hasn’t fared too much better, only registering 57 yards on 24 carries last week. On defence, they haven’t been able to recover from poor offensive performances. They’re allowing over 30 points per game in their last 3, failing to get to the QB as often as they’d like. An improved performance against this week Dolphins offense will be needed to win here in Miami.
Prediction: Dolphins -3
I tend to think that bookies underestimate the effect that injuries have on the line. The Jets have struggled mightily in recent weeks, with their large injury list playing an important factor. Whilst I don’t have all that much faith in Brock Osweiler, I expect the Dolphins team to put in a big performance here with their season on the line. Dolphins 24-17 Jets.
Monday, November 5, 5am (AEDT), U.S. Bank Stadium
Minnesota Vikings
After 3 consecutive wins, the Vikings came crashing back to earth last week in a home defeat to New Orleans. Whilst the offense put up over 400 yards on reasonable efficiency, they just couldn’t score the points to match. A costly pick-six from QB Kirk Cousins put them in a hole they couldn’t get out of. Defensively, the Vikings held this high-powered Saints offence to under 300 total yards, but couldn’t make the big plays needed to emerge victorious. If the Vikings are to make another playoff push in 2018, this is a game they simply have to win.
Detroit Lions
The 3-4 Lions travel to Minnesota off the back of a disappointing home loss to the Seahawks last week. The rushing attack that had been so strong recently was absent last week, as Detroit totalled just 34 rushing yards. Stafford put up 300 yards and 2 touchdowns in this one, but the Lions were playing from behind most of the afternoon. Defensively, Detroit was punished by a brutal 42 rushing attempts by the Seattle offence. They couldn’t handle the deep ball of Russell Wilson either, allowing 14.6 yards per pass attempt and 3 touchdowns through the air.
Prediction: Lions +5
Coming into this one, I was leaning towards the Vikings. Despite all the action on Minnesota, the line has actually moved towards the Vikings from the 6.5 opener. This reverse line movement trend is very strong and suggests to me most of the sharps are on Detroit. The only impressive Vikings win this season has been in Philadelphia and I think we’re still overrating them after last year’s effort. Vikings 27-24 Lions.
Monday, November 5, 5am (AEDT), FedEx Field
Washington Redskins
The 5-2 Redskins enter this home conference matchup off the back of 3 consecutive wins. RB Adrian Peterson has carried the offence in recent weeks, covering for the poor play of QB Alex Smith with 587 rushing yards so far this season. Defensively, the Redskins have established themselves as one of the best run defences in the league. They’ve shut down McCaffrey, Elliott and Barkley in recent weeks, allowing under 16 points per game in the process. A home game against the inconsistent Falcons represents an excellent opportunity to move to 6-2 and strengthen their grip on the NFC East crown.
Atlanta Falcons
The 3-4 Falcons travel to Washington after their bye, fresh off consecutive home wins over Tampa Bay and the Giants. QB Matt Ryan has been excellent so far this season, throwing for 2335 yards and 15 touchdowns, compared to just 2 interceptions. Unfortunately, he’s been let down by his rushing attack and defense. Statistics suggest that this Falcons defence is one of the worst of all time, having been torched by Brees, Dalton and Roethlisberger this season. Against a struggling Alex Smith, the Falcons defense needs to perform this week to pull out the win.
Prediction: Redskins -1.5
The Falcons are yet to win a road game this season. I expect the elite Redskins run defence to make Atlanta’s offence one-dimensional here. Similarly, I expect the strong form of Adrian Peterson to continue, as the Redskins do just enough offensively to pull out the win. Redskins 24-21 Falcons.
Monday, November 5, 5am (AEDT), Bank of America Stadium
Carolina Panthers
The 5-2 Panthers enter this matchup off a very impressive 15-point win over Baltimore last week. QB Cam Newton delivered another strong performance, throwing for 219 yards and rushing for 52 more en route to 3 total touchdowns. On defence, Carolina made life miserable for Joe Flacco and Co. They forced 3 total turnovers and held Flacco to an average of 4.9 yards on his 39 attempts. I think the world finally saw how good this team is last week, a performance I expect them to build off here.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The 3-4 Bucs enter this one off a competitive loss in Cincinnati last week. 4 interceptions from QB Jameis Winston means we’ll see the return of Ryan FitzMagic in Carolina. The excellent receiving duo of Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson should make for a smooth transition. Defensively, this weak Bucs unit gave up 400 total yards and 4 touchdowns to an efficient Bengals offense. They’ve proven to be one of the worst secondaries in the NFL, and I expect them to struggle against Newton and Co here.
Prediction: Panthers -6.5
In a competitive NFC, the Panthers need to keep winning to strengthen their grip on a playoff spot. They match up very well with Tampa Bay in this one. I expect their defense to pressure FitzMagic early and often, whilst Cam Newton runs wild on offense. Panthers 30-20 Buccaneers.
Monday, November 5, 5am (AEDT), M&T Bank Stadium
Baltimore Ravens
The 4-4 Ravens return home for this heated rivalry after consecutive losses to the Saints and Panthers. Their performance in Carolina last week was their worst of the season. QB Joe Flacco averaged just 4.9 yards per attempt and threw 2 interceptions, only strengthening the calls for backup Lamar Jackson to start. Despite a poor showing last week, this defence has been very strong all season. C.J Mosley and Brandon Williams lead an excellent front seven, whilst Eric Weddle and Jimmy Smith have performed well in the secondary. The Ravens absolutely need to have this game, and I expect them to come out all guns blazing here.
Pittsburgh Steelers
After a shaky start to the season, the 4-2-1 Steelers enter this one off the back of 3 straight wins. RB James Conner continues to fill in admirably for Le’Veon Bell, registering over 200 total yards and 2 touchdowns last week. QB Ben Roethlisberger has looked as good as over, registering 2300 yards and 14 scores through just 7 games. This Steelers defence has been much improved in the past 3 weeks, allowing an average of under 20 points per game. T.J. Watt, Vince Williams and Joe Haden are some names to watch on this rapidly improving unit.
Prediction: Ravens -3
After consecutive losses, I expect a sense of urgency from Baltimore in this one. I think they’re the better team here, but a loss all but ends their hopes of an AFC North title. Expect a better effort from Joe Flacco here as Baltimore wins a close one. Ravens 27-20 Steelers.
Monday, November 5, 8.05am (AEDT), Broncos Stadium at Mile High
Denver Broncos
The 3-5 Broncos enter this one off a competitive loss in Kansas City last week. Running Backs Phillip Lindsay and Devontae Booker led a strong rushing attack that registered 189 yards and a touchdown. QB Case Keenum also looked better, throwing for 262 yards and 2 scores. Whilst they contained Kareem Hunt and the Chiefs rushing attack, the explosive Kansas City passing offense proved too much. Patrick Mahomes cruised to an easy 303 yards and 4 touchdowns, evading Denver’s usually strong pass rush.
Houston Texans
After 3 straight losses to start the season, the Texans travel to Denver off the back of 5 straight wins. RB Lamar Miller had another big day on the ground, whilst QB Deshaun Watson threw for 5 touchdowns in last week’s romp over Miami. DeAndre Hopkins continues to be one of the best Receivers in the league, whilst the acquisition of Demaryius Thomas will hopefully reduce the impact of Will Fuller’s injury. On defense, Houston’s pass rush has been the key in 4 straight excellent defensive performances. J.J. Watt, Jadeveon Clowney and Co will be looking to get to Keenum early and often here.
Prediction: Texans +1.5
At 5-3, the Texans have an excellent chance to strengthen their grip on the AFC South crown here. I think they have a vastly underrated defense and will have a field day here. Similarly, Watson and Hopkins should continue to roll against an underperforming Denver defence. Texans 27-24 Broncos.
Monday, November 5, 8.05am (AEDT), CenturyLink Field
Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks return home after 4 wins in their last 5. RB Chris Carson has performed admirably in recent weeks, topping 100 yards in 3 of his last 4. QB Russell Wilson has also been in fine form, threading the needle with 3 gorgeous touchdown passes last week. The Seahawks defense has been incredibly impressive of late, holding their opponent to 17 points or less in 4 of their last 5. Phillip Rivers and the Chargers represent a tough challenge, but it’s one this Seahawks unit is more than ready for.
Los Angeles Chargers
The 5-2 Chargers travel to Seattle of the back of 4 straight wins. QB Phillip Rivers has been on a tear, throwing for 2000 yards and 17 scores through 7 weeks. RB Melvin Gordon has also started the season strongly, averaging over 100 total yards and scoring 9 touchdowns so far. On defense, LA has held their opponents under 20 points in their last 3 games. Pass Rusher Melvin Ingram has continued to generate pressure up front, whilst Rookie Safety has impressed in the secondary.
Prediction: Seahawks -1.5
Both of these teams are in fine form, but it’s tough to overlook Seattle here. I think their balanced offence can have some success here against the Chargers, whilst the defence makes enough plays to hold off Phillip Rivers. Seahawks 24-20 Chargers.
Monday, November 5, 8.25am (AEDT), Mercedes-Benz Superdome
New Orleans Saints
The 6-1 Saints enter this mouth-watering matchup after 6 straight wins and a dominant road win in Minnesota last week. QB Drew Brees has enjoyed a fantastic start to the campaign, completing 77% of his throws for 2000 yards and 14 touchdowns, compared to just 1 interception. Receiver Michael Thomas has emerged as one of the NFL’s best, whilst RB Alvin Kamara has 800 total yards and 9 touchdowns on the campaign. Defensively, the Saints have delivered 4 very strong performances. Pass Rusher Cameron Jordan has been getting to the QB with ease, whilst Marshon Lattimore has become an excellent shutdown CB. Against this high-powered Saints offence, this unit will need another excellent showing to win here.
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams travel to New Orleans leading the NFC after 8 straight wins to start the campaign. RB Todd Gurley has emerged as the NFL’s best, with 1151 total yards and 15 touchdowns to start the campaign. QB Jared Goff has also built on last year’s strong campaign, forging an excellent partnership with Receivers Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods. On defence, the Rams have one of the most stacked units in the league. Defensive Tackle Aaron Donald has already racked up 10 sacks, and is capably supported up front by Michael Brockers and N’Damukong Suh. Marcus Peters and Lamarcus Joyner have also combined excellently on the back end in Aqib Talib’s absence.
Prediction: Rams +1.5
Whilst I expect this to be a nail-biter, it’s tough to go against the unbeaten Rams here. Their offence is just so diverse and talented that I expect them to go into New Orleans and drop another 30. On defence, I expect Aaron Donald and Co to rough up Drew Brees as LA continue their unbeaten run. Rams 34-31 Saints.
The weekly NFL slate usually offers up a great multi opportunity and this is no exception. I expect the Chiefs and Bears to continue their strong starts to the campaign in road games against two of the NFL’s worst teams. Similarly, I’m confident that Carolina will strengthen their grip on an NFC playoff spot with a home win over Tampa Bay. All of this combines for excellent value at $1.95.