Week 9 concludes in Dallas in a matchup between two 3-4 teams as the Cowboys play host to the Titans. After a strong 3-1 start to the season, the Titans have lost 3 straight and now find themselves two games behind the Texans in the AFC South. The Cowboys have alternated between wins and losses all season and will now have to catch up to both Washington and Philadelphia in the NFC East. The loser of this game will have a huge mountain to climb if they want to compete for a playoff spot this season, so I expect both sides to come out with a strong sense of urgency. Let’s take a look at our 3 best bets in this value-packed preview.
Where to Watch: ESPN, 7 Mate or NFL Game Pass, Tuesday 12:20am
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas have been consistently inconsistent this season, typified by the play of QB Dak Prescott. Dak has come under a lot of fire from the media this season but is still completing 62% of his passes with a 2-1 touchdown to interception ratio. He has the support of one of the best backs in the league in Zeke Elliott, who already has 600 rushing yards on the campaign. In Amari Cooper, he now also has a legitimate #1 Wide Receiver that can complement Cole Beasley and Tavon Austin in the passing game.
A minor surprise this season has been the excellent play of the Cowboys defense. Jaylon Smith and Sean Lee have combined to become one of the most fearsome Linebacking duos in the league, patrolling the field from sideline to sideline. DeMarcus Lawrence and Taco Charlton lead a strong defensive line that can both get to the Quarterback and disrupt the opposing rushing attack. Having only allowed a season high of 24 points, this Cowboys defense will be salivating at the opportunity to go at this struggling Titans offense.
Tennessee Titans
The 3-4 Titans could be firmly in the AFC playoff picture if their offense had performed better so far in 2018. QB Marcus Mariota has largely struggled on the campaign, registering just 3 passing touchdowns compared to 5 interceptions. Admittedly, he hasn’t been helped by an offensive line that gave up a whopping 11 sacks to the Ravens earlier this year. In Dion Lewis and Derrick Henry, the Titans have an excellent complementary rushing attack that they should really look to use more here in Dallas.
Defensively, the Titans started the season in fine form and have remained one of the best units in the league. They’ve allowed over 23 points on just one occasion this season and have kept this anaemic offense in most of their games. Even in their 3 consecutive losses, they’re only allowing an average of 18 points. Defensive Tackle Jurrell Casey continues to establish himself as one of the best linemen in the league, consistently disrupting opposing offenses. Logan Ryan and Malcolm Butler also comprise a strong CB duo, capable of holding things down in the secondary.
Best Bets
Titans +6.5
Cowboys coach Jason Garrett has a terrible spread record as a straight-up home favourite. Despite the huge amount spent on the exquisite AT&T Stadium, it hasn’t brought about a strong home field advantage. I don’t really see what the Cowboys have done to enter this game as such a big favourite. They’ve only covered this line twice out of 7 games so far, one of which was against the lowly Giants.
The Titans are a more competitive team than the general public believes. They’ve hung tough with teams like the Texans, Jaguars, Eagles and Chargers so far, many of whom will make the playoffs. Despite their struggling offense, the defense has consistently shown up and will be a force again here in Dallas. I think this line is 2-3 points too high and will happily take Tennessee here.
Over 41 Points
This is a tough one considering the defensive dominance of these two teams so far, but I believe this has contributed to an artificially low number. I expect a more innovative game plan from Coach Mike Vrabel this week, one that takes advantage of Mariota’s excellent scrambling ability.
The addition of Amari Cooper should also really open up this Dallas offense, allowing Tavon Austin and Cole Beasley to slide into more natural roles. It also helps create rushing lanes for star RB Zeke Elliott, who has the potential to go off in this one. 41 points in the modern NFL really isn’t much and I expect this game to end up slightly over.
1st Touchdown Scorer: Ezekiel Elliott
Whilst the Titans have more of a 1-2 punch with their running game, Zeke is firmly entrenched as the man in Dallas. He’s again been the Cowboys best offensive player this season and I expect them to get the ball to him early and often. Dallas are very much a run-heavy offense, especially in the red zone. If they’re first on the board here, there’s a strong chance it’s from a Zeke touchdown. Play this at anything $6 or above. This is also an effective hedge against our Titans +6.5 bet, with both of these outcomes being realistically likely to occur.
Best Bet: Titans +6.5
Tennessee +6.5 points is simply the best value on the board for me in this one. The gap between these two sides really isn’t that big and the Cowboys don’t have a great homefield advantage. I expect another strong display from the Titans defense, whilst Mariota does enough to keep it close offensively. Titans moneyline might also be worth a sneaky bet.
Score Prediction: Dallas Cowboys 24-20 Tennessee Titans