Week 10 of the NFL season concludes in San Francisco in a matchup between two struggling NFC teams as the 49ers play host to the New York Giants. The NFL schedulers would’ve hoped that both of these teams would be fit and firing, however injuries have derailed both of their seasons. San Francisco will be feeling good about their biggest win of the season against Oakland last week and enter this one as the favourite. Conversely, the Giants travel to San Francisco off the back of 5 straight losses and currently possess the worst record in the NFC. Whilst it may not be the prettiest matchup on paper, this preview will analyze our 3 best value bets in this Monday Night Football clash.
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers enter this one off what was by far their best performance of the season, where they steamrolled the cross-town rival Raiders 34-3. 3rd string QB Nick Mullens had an excellent NFL debut, completing 16/22 passes for 262 yards and 3 touchdowns. Despite battling injuries of late, 49ers RB Matt Breida has been one of the best in the NFL this season, enjoying 531 rushing yards on 5.5 yards per attempt. Tight End George Kittle also built on his impressive sophomore campaign with 4 catches for 108 yards and a score last week. Kittle has emerged as one of the best Tight Ends in the league, with 692 yards on 41 receptions this season.
On defence, the 49ers have delivered much improved performances in recent weeks. Whilst it did come against the lowly Cardinals and Raiders, they’ve only allowed an average of 10.5 points in their last two outings. A dominant defensive line abused Oakland last week, registering 8 sacks as they allowed just 140 yards passing. DeForest Buckner has emerged as one of the best Defensive Tackles in the league so far, making things much easier on his fellow linemen. In Richard Sherman, the Niners also have a shutdown CB that should match up well with Odell Beckham.
New York Giants
The Giants enter this one with their playoff hopes all but over, 5 straight losses leaving them with a precarious 1-7 record. QB Eli Manning doesn’t appear to have it anymore, throwing for just 8 touchdowns this season as the Giants constantly have to play from behind. In Odell Beckham Junior and Sterling Shepard, the G-Men have one of the most dynamic young receiving duos in the league. Rookie RB Saquon Barkley is averaging an impressive 4.7 yards per carry, with 7 total touchdowns through the first half of the season.
This Giants defence just hasn’t put the team in a position to win, allowing 20 or more points in all of their games this season. The performance was somewhat improved last time out against Washington, as they held the Redskins to just 178 passing yards and 5.6 yards per attempt. That said, the rushing defence let them down as they let Adrian Peterson go off for 149 yards and a score. Led by Defensive Backs Janoris Jenkins and Landon Collins, this unit does have some talent. Against a 3rd string QB in only his second start, I can see them holding the 49ers here.
Best Bets
Giants +3
Even after last week’s dominant display over the Raiders, it’s hard for me to fancy the 49ers too highly here. They deserve credit for continuing to play hard, but Oakland just rolled over and quit in that game. Whilst Nick Mullens may have offered a bit of a boost, it’s important to consider that the 49ers did lose both home and away to the Cardinals this year.
Since they closed as underdogs last week at home to Oakland, I believe there’s been a bit of an overreaction installing the Niners as 3-point favourites here. Despite their very poor 1-7 record, the Giants have faced a largely difficult schedule so far this season. This matchup in San Francisco looks like their easiest task of the season so far and I expect them to keep this one competitive, if not win outright.
Under 43.5 Points
Neither of these teams have put up all that many points of late. The 49ers seem to have ironed a few things out defensively and have been well under this total in each of the past two weeks. It’s been a similar story for the Giants, who have had close losses to the Redskins and Falcons in each of their last two fixtures.
Both teams will no doubt see this as an opportunity to get another win and as such, I expect two conservative game plans here. The 49ers will look to lean on their strong running game to win the time of possession battle and keep Nick Mullens out of trouble. Similarly, I expect the Giants to utilize Saquon Barkley in conjunction with a short passing game that should lead to longer drives.
First TD Scorer: Saquon Barkley
Tying in with my prediction of the Giants covering the spread, I’m going to double down and back Saquon Barkley as the first touchdown scorer. Despite being maligned on draft night, Barkley has had a strong start to the season and has 7 touchdowns through his first 8 games.
With Eli Manning’s lack of success in the red zone this year, I expect the Giants to look to rush it in wherever possible. The 49ers defence has proven very susceptible to the run this season and I can see Barkley being a threat from all over the field. Odell Beckham and George Kittle are good dark-horse candidates, but I feel as though Saquon is the best value on the board.
Score Prediction: Giants 24-17 San Francisco 49ers