The Week 10 Sunday slate concludes in Philadelphia with an intriguing NFC East matchup, as the 4-4 Eagles play host to the 3-5 Cowboys. Philadelphia look to be turning a corner with 2 wins in their last 3, whilst the Cowboys enter this one off consecutive losses. A loss here would push the reigning Superbowl champions another game behind Washington in the NFC East standings, so I’d expect an urgent performance here. With the Cowboys season all but over with a loss, you’d expect nothing less from them either. Let’s take a look at our 3 best bets in this season-defining Sunday Night Football encounter.
Where to Watch: ESPN, 7 Mate or NFL Game Pass, Monday 12:20 pm
Philadelphia Eagles
The 4-4 Eagles enter this one fresh off their bye week, after a 24-18 win over Jacksonville in their last time out. QB Carson Wentz has been playing at a very high level since returning from injury, completing 70% of his passes for 13 touchdowns, compared to just 2 interceptions. The Philadelphia rushing attack has largely struggled since an ACL injury to Jay Ajayi, however rookie RB Josh Allen broke out against the Jaguars. In Alshon Jeffery, Jordan Matthews and Zach Ertz, Wentz has a trio of big and talented pass catchers to rely on.
Defensively, the Eagles have been strong again this season, holding their opponent under 20 points in 5 of their 8 games so far. They shut down the Jacksonville rushing attack in London, forcing QB Blake Bortles to try and beat them himself. An immensely talented front seven is the focal point of this unit, led by excellent defensive linemen Fletcher Cox and Chris Long. This is balanced nicely by an opportunistic secondary that features Safety Malcolm Jenkins and CB Ronald Darby.
Dallas Cowboys
The 3-5 Cowboys enter this one off the back of consecutive losses to the Redskins and Titans. QB Dak Prescott simply hasn’t delivered the same level of performances in his 3rd season, averaging just 7 yards per attempt and throwing for only 10 touchdowns through 8 games. RB Ezekiel Elliott remains the primary threat on this offence, totalling 900 combined yards this season. In Amari Cooper, the Cowboys look to have finally secured their #1 Receiver after the departure of QB Dez Bryant. Cooper managed 5 catches for 58 yards and a score in his Cowboys debut last Monday.
Whilst the Cowboys have been largely good on defence this season, they were outclassed by Marcus Mariota and the Titans offence. They allowed 8.3 yards per pass attempt and 4 touchdowns in what was an uncharacteristically poor display. That said, there is some very strong talent on this unit. In Jaylon Smith and Sean Lee, they have one of the better linebacking duos in the league, complemented nicely by Leighton Vander-Esch. Up front, Demarcus Lawrence and Tyrone Crawford continue to bring pressure from the edge, whilst Safety Jeff Heath has emerged as a quality option on the back end.
Best Bets
Eagles -5.5
I think the Eagles are the much better team in this one. Despite being 4-4, each of their losses have been by 6 points or less. They’ve had two dominant wins in their last 3 outings, comfortably disposing of the division-rival Giants and the Jaguars. A major problem for this team so far has been poor clutch play in the 4th quarter. They had their opportunities in a 2-point loss to the Vikings and blew a big lead at home to Carolina.
In a matchup where they have a significant talent advantage, I’m not expecting it to be too close late in this one. Whilst the games have been relatively close, Dallas is currently 0-4 on the road this season. It’s been the offence that has largely been the problem in these games, failing to reach 20 points in all 4 contests. Against an upstart Eagles team in a raucous environment, I’m not sure if this is the game Dallas can turn their fortunes around.
Over 43.5 Points
Based on the form of both of these offences to start the season, this is a pretty accurate line. However, I feel as though both of these offences have underperformed to their talent level this season. Carson Wentz is finally back to his best after a long injury layoff and this could be the game he finally goes off. Similarly, in Wendell Smallwood and Josh Allen, it looks like Philly has found a winning formula in the running game.
The addition of Amari Cooper should also work wonders for this Dallas offence. He fills a huge hole set by Dez Bryant and complements Receiver Cole Beasley nicely. This also helps to open up space for Ezekiel Elliott, who is widely regarded as one of the best backs in the league. If Zeke can get going in this one, I expect Dallas to finally eclipse this 20-point barrier and help push the total over.
First TD Scorer: Zach Ertz
With Philadelphia the substantial favourite in this one, I’m expecting them to exert their dominance and get the first touchdown here. As the rushing attack is still a work in progress, I think one of their pass catchers represents better value. The ever-reliable Zach Ertz emerged as one of the NFL’s best Tight Ends, enjoying a career-high 824 yards and 8 touchdowns in the Eagles’ Superbowl campaign.
He also has 3 touchdowns at the halfway point of the season, all within the last 4 matches where Wentz has looked at his best. Whilst there is some competition with Alshon Jeffery and the newly acquired Golden Tate, I think Ertz is a much better target in the Red-Zone. I expect this to be priced around $12 but would recommend playing it at anything $10 or above.
Score Prediction: Philadelphia Eagles 27-20 Dallas Cowboys