It’s been a whirlwind college football season so far and we’re already at Week 10. We’re officially at the pointy end of the campaign, and the stakes are high for teams fighting for that elusive playoff berth. Michigan play host to Penn State, whilst Jake Fromm leads the Georgia Bulldogs into Kentucky in two of the marquee matchups on the slate. With such a huge slate of games, there’s plenty of value to be had this week. Let’s take a look at our 7 best line bets of the week, plus another enticing weekly multi in this Week 10 preview.
Virginia Cavaliers
The 6-2 Cavaliers enter this one with a #25 ranking off the back of three-straight victories. Dual-threat QB Bryce Perkins has been immensely impressive this season, throwing for 1600 yards and 15 touchdowns, adding a further 6 scores on the ground.
RB Jordan Ellis is also enjoying the best campaign of his career, averaging 5.3 yards per attempt and enjoying 7 touchdowns so far. Defensively, Virginia have been very strong in this win streak, allowing an average of just 15 points in their last 3 games. The run defense in particular has been excellent, with an opportunistic secondary that can capitalize on the back-end.
Pitssburgh Panthers
The 4-4 Panthers travel to Virginia off a big win over Duke last time out. It was an incredible effort from the rushing attack that got this job done, totalling an astounding 484 yards and 4 touchdowns on 52 attempts. QB Kenny Pickett was then able to effectively manage the game through the air, throwing for 2 scores in a mistake-free performance.
The Panthers defense will need to improve here, allowing over 600 yards and 6 scores to an average Duke offense. I anticipate a front-seven led by Elias Reynolds and Dennis Briggs to keep Pittsburgh in this one.
Prediction: Pittsburgh +7.5
Through the key number of 7, I’m fairly confident in Pittsburgh getting the job done here. Their excellent rushing offense should help them win the time of possession battle and limit opportunities for the Virginia offense. In what I expect to be a tight one, Pittsburgh should keep it close here.
Ohio State Buckeyes
The 7-1 Buckeyes return home after a shock defeat at Purdue last time out. Sophomore QB Dwayne Haskins has had an excellent start to the campaign, throwing for 2800 yards and 5 touchdowns so far. Mike Weber is an excellent starting Back at this level, whilst Receiver K.J. Hill has established himself as one of the best in the Big 10.
Despite last week’s showing, the Buckeyes have largely been solid on defense so far. Linebacker Malik Harrison and Safety Jordan Fuller very much lead the way for a unit that always aspires to be the nation’s best.
Nebraska Cornhuskers
After starting the season 0-6, the Cornhuskers travel to Ohio off the back of consecutive wins. QB Adrian Martinez has looked very solid in these wins, completing over 75% of his passes en route to 5 touchdowns. This is complemented nicely by a very strong Nebraska rushing attack that registered 383 yards and 4 scores a fortnight ago. Nebraska are definitely more of an offensive team and have largely struggled on defense in this campaign. It’s the passing defense that has been the main culprit, which doesn’t bode well with the form Dwayne Haskins is in.
Prediction: Over 72.5 points
This is a very high total, but Nebraska have been over machines the past two seasons. They’ve gone over in 14 of their last 15 games and I see no reason to shy away from the trend here. I expect Haskins and Co to put up 50 in this one, whilst Adrian Martinez does enough for Nebraska to keep it respectable.
Texas Longhorns
The 6-2 Longhorns enter this one off the back of a narrow 3-point defeat to Oklahoma State. QB Sam Ehlinger has been largely solid so far, enjoying 13 touchdowns compared to only 2 interceptions. Freshman RB Keaontay Ingram has also looked like a future stud, averaging just under 6 yards per carry on the campaign.
In general, the Longhorns defense has been strong in 2018. The rush defense led by Gary Johnson and Anthony Wheeler has been very stout in particular, which should bode well against the Mountaineers.
West Virginia Mountaineers
The 6-1 Mountaineers travel to Texas as the #13 ranked team in the country. They enter this one fresh off a dominant win over Baylor, in which they had a 41-0 halftime lead. QB Will Grier continued his excellent start to the campaign, throwing for 353 yards and 3 scores on just 27 attempts.
The West Virginia attack also piled on 172 yards and 3 scores, aided by a 79-yard carry from RB Tevin Bush. Defensively, they were very strong against Baylor, allowing just 82 yards on the ground. An opportunistic secondary forced 3 interceptions and led to the benching of Baylor QB Charlie Brewer after just 8 pass attempts.
Prediction: Texas -2
I see Texas ruining the Mountaineers season with a home win in this one. Ehlinger plays a controlled style of football and won’t be overwhelmed by this West Virginia defense. I expect the Texas rushing attack to lead the way in a hard-fought affair. Under the key number of 3, I see strong value on the Longhorns here.
Kentucky Wildcats
Whilst their basketball team always seems to get the attention, the #9 ranked Kentucky Wildcats football squad enter this one at an impressive 7-1. This has been in spite of an offense that has largely struggled. QB Terry Wilson has played more of a game-manager style this season, throwing for more touchdowns than interceptions.
RB Benny Snell definitely leads this offense, rushing for 935 yards and 9 scores so far. It’s been a phenomenal Wildcats defense that has stolen the show this season. They haven’t allowed more than 16 points in their last 7 outings, highlighted by wins over Florida and Mississippi State. A dominant rush defense leads the way, complimented nicely by their smothering pass coverage.
Georgia Bulldogs
The 7-1 Bulldogs enter this one after a nice bounce-back win over Florida last week. QB Jake Fromm again proved why he’s one of the highest rated prospects in the nation, throwing for 240 yards and 2 scores. His performance was complimented nicely by a punishing Georgia rushing attack that registered 189 yards on 41 attempts.
The Gators are almost always strong defensively and this year is no exception. They’ve allowed more than 17 points just once this season. Against a Kentucky Wildcats offense that has largely struggled so far, I expect this Georgia defense to deliver a match-winning display.
Prediction: Georgia -9
It’s tough going against a 7-1 home team, but Georgia are clearly the better team in this one. Their smothering defence should hold Kentucky to 17 or less again here, whilst Jake Fromm shows his quality on offense. Bulldogs by double digits here.
Michigan Wolverines
After a loss at Notre Dame to start the season, the Wolverines enter this one off the back of 7 straight wins. QB Shea Patterson has been very effective this season, completing over two thirds of his passes for 1523 yards and 12 touchdowns, compared to just 3 picks. RB Karan Higdon continues to show his quality, going for 144 yards on the ground against archrival Michigan State.
This Wolverines defense has consistently proven themselves as one of the best in the nation, evidenced by their domination of arch-rivals Michigan State. They allowed under 100 yards of total offense on the road in one of the most dominant defensive displays that I can recall. Rashan Gary, Devin Bush and Chase Winovich are some of the names to watch out for on this star-studded unit.
Penn State Nittany Lions
The #14 ranked Nittany Lions travel to Ann Arbor at 6-2 and 3rd in the Big-Ten East. Whilst not as efficient as last year, QB Trace McSorley is still excellent at this level, enjoying a 3-1 TD-Interception ratio so far. RB Miles Sanders has filled in capably for the departing Saquon Barkley, averaging 6.1 yards per attempt and rushing for 8 touchdowns on the campaign.
The Penn State defense has also performed strongly so far, effectively limiting Iowa last time out. Allowing just 4.3 yards per pass attempt and 3.6 yards per rush is a recipe for a win in almost any game. Unfortunately for Penn State, I expect Michigan to be too much for them here.
Prediction: Michigan -10
I continue to think that Jim Harbaugh is one of the best football coaches in the country. He continues to build well-rounded rosters that can compete against anyone. The Michigan defense is definitely the strongest unit in this game, and I expect them to lead the way to victory again here. Michigan by 14+.
Florida Gators
Florida return home after a disappointing loss in Georgia last week. QB Feleipe Franks very much struggled, throwing for just 105 yards on his 21 attempts. Florida will look to lean on a rushing attack that registered 170 yards last week. The usually stout defense wasn’t all that much better, comfortably allowing over 400 yards and 4 scores to a strong Georgia offense. Against a dangerous Missouri attack, this has to improve here.
Missouri Tigers
The 4-4 Tigers travel to Florida after 4 losses in their last 5 games. QB Drew Lock has been an offensive bright spot, throwing for over 2100 yards and 16 scores so far this campaign. The Tigers rushing attack has proven to be very strong as well, registering 273 yards and 4 scores a fortnight ago. Defensively, the Tigers have been inconsistent so far. Whilst their pass defense has been solid, stopping the run appears to be their achilles heel, which doesn’t bode well against the Gators.
Prediction: Florida -6
After last week’s display, I believe there’s some strong line value on Florida here. I expect their rushing attack to perform much better this week, whilst the defense is always strong at the Swamp. Under the key number of 7, I’m confident in a Gators cover.
Northwestern Wildcats
The Wildcats enter this matchup in first place in the Big Ten Western conference. QB Clayton Thorson has been inconsistent so far, throwing 10 touchdowns to his 10 interceptions in 2018. The Northwestern defense has definitely picked up the slack, doing enough to register 4 straight wins. An excellent pass defense, this unit will have their work cut out for them against the strong Fighting Irish attack here.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
The 8-0 Irish enter this one as the #4 ranked team in the country. QB Ian Book has emerged as one of the most efficient in the nation, whilst Dexter Williams leads a thriving rushing attack. Led by Te’von Coney and Jalen Elliott, this defense is also very deep and versatile. Their pass defense in particular has been strong in recent weeks, allowing them to stack the box and limit opposing rushing attacks.
Prediction: Notre Dame -9.5
Notre Dame are by far the more talented team in this one. I expect an efficient performance from their offense, whilst their defense gets to Clayton Thorson early and often. The Irish further their playoff candidacy with a comfortable win here.
Following the same criteria that has worked in NFL and NBA so far, these are 3 teams with a significant talent advantage who are all reasonably priced. I expect each of these teams to play with a strong sense of urgency in this one and believe that over $2 represents strong value.