Week 8 of the NFL season comes to a close in Buffalo as Tom Brady and the Patriots travel to face the Bills and … Derek Anderson. This appears to be one of the biggest mismatches in recent memory, with a 14-point road favourite almost unheard of in the NFL. That said, this is still a very important fixture for the NFL standings. New England will be looking to cement their status as a top 2 seed in the AFC, whilst Buffalo will be in the mix for a top pick in April’s draft. The beauty of NFL betting is that there’s always some value on the card, even in games that don’t appear competitive on paper. This detailed preview will analyse each of our 3 best bets in Buffalo.
Where to Watch: ESPN, 7 Mate or NFL Game Pass Tuesday 11:20 am
Buffalo Bills
The 2-5 Bills enter this one off an absolute horror show in Indianapolis, falling 37-5 to the previously 1-5 Colts. QB Derek Anderson looked dreadful in his return to NFL action, throwing 3 interceptions and losing a fumble in what was an awful display. He hasn’t been helped by a receiving corps that many have branded as the worst in the league. With Running Back LeSean McCoy also questionable this week, the Bills are likely to have a very difficult time scoring in this one.
Defensively, it’s hard to fault the effort the Bills have put forth this season. Despite having a mid-game retirement from Vontae Davis, they’ve managed to single-handedly win 2 games on their own this season. Before last week’s horror show, they went through a four week stretch where they allowed an average of just 20 points per game. The strength of this unit is undoubtedly their pass defence. Jerry Hughes and Lorenzo Alexander have gotten after opposing QB’s all season, whilst CB Tre’Davious White has managed to shut down opposing receivers.
New England Patriots
The Patriots continued their usual trend of starting the season off slowly before rattling off several straight wins. Their offence has been absolutely rolling this past month, scoring at least 38 points in every fixture en route to 4 straight wins. QB Tom Brady is leading the way with another phenomenal season, completing 68% of his passes for 1876 yards and 16 touchdowns so far. 1st round pick Sony Michel has come along in the running game in recent weeks, whilst Receiver Josh “Flash” Gordon had his first 100-yard outing last week in Chicago.
On defence, the Pats are doing just enough to hold on for these wins. They’ve allowed 71 points in their last 2 games, but it just hasn’t mattered with the offense playing this well. The key to this game will be improving a rushing defence that allowed 5.4 yards per carry and 2 touchdowns against Chicago last week. I expect a pass defence led by Devin McCourty, Stephon Gilmore and Patrick Chung to have their way with a weak Buffalo aerial attack.
Best Bets
Patriots -7 1st Half
Honestly, I’m expecting this one to be a romp from start to finish. I’ve seen the movie too many times where Tom Brady and the Patriots roll into an underdog’s home stadium and deliver a professional performance. Given the impressive form of the Patriots offence, I’m also expecting another high scoring one here. The return of Julian Edelman and addition of Josh Gordon have given this offence another dimension.
With how much the Bills offence has struggled, getting out to a 7-point lead shouldn’t prove too difficult for the Patriots. I realistically expect a 17-24-point first half that Derek Anderson and Co simply won’t be able to keep up with. The opportunistic Patriots defence also has every chance of registering a defensive touchdown. As long as this remains at 7 points, this is a bet I’m very comfortable with.
Patriots -14 Full Game
I could opt to hedge my bets here but I’m very confident in the Patriots pulling this one out. 14 points may seem like a lot, but the Patriots offense is just in a different stratosphere right now. The emergence of Sony Michel and James White in the rushing attack has only made things easier for Tom Brady, who was already playing with an unfair advantage.
Moreover, one of the biggest mismatches in the NFL this week is the Patriots defence up against this Bills offence. If Derek Anderson could only manage 5 points last week against a decimated Colts defence, I shudder to think what may transpire against New England here. Expect the Patriots to stack the box and put pressure on Anderson early and often. This number likely only increases with all the action on the Patriots, so get in quick.
Patriots 1st Quarter Team Total Over 5.5
I’m tripling down on my prediction of a big Patriots win in this one. As those who follow regularly would know, this bet type is one I’ve had strong success with. With the form this Patriots offence is in, I’m simply shocked the total is this low. The Bills defence has admittedly performed admirably, but the Pats are an entirely different beast. They have the versatility and depth to really trouble this unit.
Best Bet: Patriots Team Total Over 5.5 1st quarter
From a statistical and value perspective, this bet makes too much sense to ignore. The Patriots have eclipsed this total in 3 of their last 4 outings, whilst the Bills have allowed this total in 4 of their 7 games so far. A touchdown or two field goals within 15 minutes is very achievable for this Patriots offence, especially with the time of possession advantage I expect them to have.
Score Prediction: New England Patriots 34-13 Buffalo Bills