NFL Week 7 Preview

NFL Week 7 Preview

Week 6 brought us another breathtaking week of action in the NFL. Both Sunday and Monday Night Football games were excellent offensive displays that went right down to the wire. The Los Angeles Rams remain the only unbeaten team in the NFL after last week’s effort, with the Chiefs falling narrowly to New England. Week 7 represent a critical point in the season for many teams. A poor loss here could be the difference between playoff football and an early end to the season. In what I expect to be a hard-fought and competitive slate of games, let’s analyse the best value for each of the Sunday games.

LA Chargers vs Tennessee Titans
Titans at the Line (+7)

Monday, October 22, 12:30 am (AEST), Wembley Stadium 

Los Angeles Chargers 

The Chargers head into this one off of 3 straight wins, including an impressive 38-14 thumping of the Browns last time out. Melvin Gordon stole the show, registering 18 carries for 132 yards and an impressive 3 touchdowns. QB Phillip Rivers was again stellar, throwing for 2 touchdowns and averaging over 10 yards per attempt. On defence, the Chargers completely shut down the Browns passing offence. They forced 2 turnovers from QB Baker Mayfield, allowing only 5.2 yards per attempt in the process. Against a vulnerable Titans passing attack, the Chargers front seven could be poised for a big week.  

Tennessee Titans 

After their loss to the Bills a fortnight ago, the Titans were even worse last week, falling 21-0 at home to the Ravens. QB Marcus Mariota only managed 117 yards on the afternoon and was sacked 11 times in the process. Similarly, the duo of Derrick Henry and Dion Lewis couldn’t get anything going in the running game, combining for just 30 yards. Defensively, the Titans have performed well all season. Led by Defensive Tackle Jurrell Casey, they have a deep and balanced unit capable of shutting down most offences. With the poor recent performances by the offense, the Titans will need another special effort from this group here.  

Prediction: Titans +7 

The Chargers have been the most heavily bet team so far this season. However, I believe that 7 points for the Titans represents excellent value. On a neutral Wembley field, the gap between these two teams simply isn’t that big. Chargers win but the Titans cover. LA Chargers 20-17 Tennessee Titans. 

Chicago Bears vs New England Patriots
Bears at the Line (+3.5)

Monday, October 22, 4:00 am (AEST), Soldier Field 

Chicago Bears 

The 3-2 Bears enter this high-profile matchup off a disappointing road loss to the Dolphins. QB Mitchell Trubisky put up solid numbers, managing 316 yards and 3 touchdowns on his 31 attempts. Similarly, the diverse Bears rushing attack put up 164 yards and a score of their own. The usually vaunted Bears defence just couldn’t contain the Dolphins offense. Backup QB Brock Osweiler put up 380 yards and 3 touchdowns, whilst 35-year-old Frank Gore had another 100-yard rushing day. With Brady and Co firing again in recent weeks, the Bears defence will need to be back to their best here. 

New England Patriots 

Everything is seemingly right in New England again after last week’s victory over the Chiefs. Tom Brady was immense, managing 340 yards and a score. Led by Rookie Sony Michel, the Pats rushing attack delivered a resurgent performance and picked up 3 touchdowns. Defensively, they weren’t as great, conceding 40 points to an admittedly strong Chiefs offense. They allowed 352 yards and 4 touchdowns through the air, including 3 to wideout Tyreek Hill. This simply has to improve for New England to emerge victorious here. 

Prediction: Bears +3.5 

This is again a bit of a contrarian play; however I believe the Bears can hang with the Patriots. I believe that their swarming defence can cause Brady and co problems, whilst a resurgent Trubisky does enough to keep it close. New England Patriots 24-23 Chicago Bears. 

Indianapolis Colts vs Buffalo Bills
Colts Halftime/Full Time

Monday, October 22, 4:00 am (AEST), Lucas Oil Stadium 

Indianapolis Colts 

After last week’s loss to the Jets, the 1-5 Colts enter this matchup in a fairly precarious position. Andrew Luck put in a mixed performance last week, throwing for 300 yards and 4 touchdowns, but still managing 3 interceptions in the process. Defensively, the Colts have been riddled by injuries. They’ve allowed an average of 40 points in their last 2 defeats and have been carved apart through the air. Fortunately, they’re set to face a Bills offense led by the recently acquired Derek Anderson this week. If they can’t contain that unit, I fear for this Colts defence for the rest of the year. 

Buffalo Bills 

Despite their 1-5 record, the Bills have remained competitive throughout the season. Starting new QB Derek Anderson could be just what they need this week. After a strong last fortnight, star RB LeSean McCoy will need another big day for Buffalo to succeed here. Defensively, the Bills have been an effective yet often underrated unit. Led by pass rusher Jerry Hughes and Linebacker Lorenzo Alexander, the Bills have a front seven that can cause the Colts problem. 

Prediction: Colts Halftime/Fulltime 

The 7.5 point spread for this one is tough to call, however I’m quite confident in the Colts getting a win here. I just don’t think Derek Anderson has what it takes to win this after so much time off. Colts Halftime/Fulltime is excellent value here. Indianapolis Colts 27-17 Buffalo Bills. 

Miami Dolphins vs Detroit Lions
Detroit Moneyline

Monday, October 22, 4:00 am (AEST), Hard Rock Stadium 

Miami Dolphins 

Without starting QB Ryan Tannehill, the Dolphins put up an impressive win over the Bears last week. Often maligned backup QB Brock Osweiler stole the show, putting up 380 yards and 3 touchdowns as part of a fourth quarter comeback. RB duo Frank Gore and Kenyan Drake continue to impress, combining for 158 yards on the afternoon. Defensively, the Dolphins did just enough to hold on. Led by Kiko Alonso and Reshad Jones, this is a strong and balanced unit capable of containing most offences. Against a stellar Lions passing attack, they’ll need to be at their best here. 

Detroit Lions 

Before last week’s bye, the Lions put up an impressive home win over the Green Bay Packers. QB Matt Stafford delivered a solid performance, registering 183 yards and 2 touchdowns on the afternoon. Similarly, the RB duo of Kerryon Johnson and LeGarrette Blount is showing signs of becoming an effective 1-2 punch. Defensively, the Lions did a decent job containing Green Bay. Whilst the Packers put up a ton of yards, they just couldn’t convert all that well in the red-zone. A similar defensive performance this week should be enough for Detroit to get the job done. 

Prediction: Detroit Moneyline 

With Tannehill’s status still in question, there is no current line for this fixture. Nonetheless, I believe Detroit’s strong passing game will be enough to get the win here in Miami, allowing them to move to 3-3. Detroit Lions 24-20 Miami Dolphins.  

New York Jets vs Minnesota Vikings
Under 47.5 Points

Monday, October 22, 4:00 am (AEST), MetLife Stadium 

New York Jets 

The Jets enter this matchup 3-3 after consecutive home wins. QB Sam Darnold looked very impressive last week, completing 80% of his passes for 280 yards and 2 touchdowns. Jermaine Kearse has emerged as a weapon in the passing game, whilst Bilal Powell and Isaiah Crowell form an effective rushing duo. Defensively, the Jets have been solid this season. They possess a capable and opportunistic secondary that regularly causes fits for opposing QB’s. Against the high-flying Vikings offense, they’ll need to be at their best here. 

Minnesota Vikings 

Consecutive victories have got the 3-2-1 Vikings back on track. RB Latavius Murray stole the show against Arizona last week, registering 155 yards and a touchdown. Receiver Adam Thielen continues to perform strongly, hauling in 11 catches for 123 yards and a score of his own. The strong Vikings defence has shown their quality in recent weeks, effectively limiting both the Eagles and Cardinals offences. A unit led by Harrison Smith and Anthony Barr will provide tough competition for the young Jets offense. 

Prediction: Under 47.5 Points 

This points total appears to be 5-6 points too high. I’m expecting a close one here, with both defences being able to contain the opposing offences. Minnesota’s quality ultimately wins out here. Minnesota Vikings 24-21 New York Jets. 

Philadelphia Eagles vs Carolina Panthers
Panthers at the Line (+4.5)

Monday, October 22, 4:00 am (AEST), Lincoln Financial Field 

Philadelphia Eagles 

The Eagles enter this one fresh off a dominant road win over the Giants last week. QB Carson Wentz ran the show, registering 278 yards and 3 touchdowns in a complete performance. Whilst they struggled to stop Saquon Barkley, the Eagles did a very effective job of limiting the Giants passing game. Eli Manning was held without a touchdown again and was sacked 4 times in a convincing display. Up against Cam Newton and co this week, this vaunted Eagles defence faces a much tougher test. 

Carolina Panthers 

The 3-2 Panthers enter this one off a narrow road loss to the Redskins last week. Whilst QB Cam Newton was effective, the usually dominant Carolina rushing attack struggled to get going. Christian McCaffrey managed just 20 yards on the ground, which simply has to improve here. Defensively, the strong Panthers unit did a fantastic job containing the Redskins. They limited Alex Smith to just 4.5 yard per attempt but just couldn’t make the big plays.  

Prediction: Panthers +4.5 

Despite last week’s win over the Giants, I don’t believe the Eagles should be favoured by this much here. Through the key numbers of 3 and 4, I’ll happily take the Panthers in what I expect to be a close one. Carolina Panthers 24-23 Philadelphia Eagles. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Cleveland Browns
Browns at the Line (+3.5)

Monday, October 22, 4:00 am (AEST), Raymond James Stadium 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 

Tampa Bay enter this one reeling after suffering 3 straight losses. QB Jameis Winston looked good as the starter last week, registering 395 yards and 4 touchdowns. Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson continue to make for one of the most dynamic receiving duos in the league. On defence, the Bucs have struggled mightily in recent weeks. Whilst they contained the Falcons passing game, conceding 355 passing yards and 3 touchdowns just isn’t conducive to winning football. 

Cleveland Browns 

After 5 competitive fixtures, the Browns laid their first dud of the season at home to the Chargers last week. QB Baker Mayfield looked out of his depth, whilst star RB Carlos Hyde couldn’t get anything going in the running game. On defence, the usually stout Browns front seven just couldn’t contain the Chargers rushing attack. They allowed 132 yards and 3 scores to Melvin Gordon, whilst Phillip Rivers also picked them apart in the passing game. They’ll need a better defensive showing to register a win in Tampa here. 

Prediction: Browns +3.5 

With heavy action on the Buccaneers, getting the Browns at +3.5 represents decent value here. I expect an improved performance from Baker Mayfield and Co against this week Tampa Bay defense. Cleveland Browns 27-24 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. 

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans
Jags at the Line (-5)

Monday, October 22, 4:00 am (AEST), TIIA Bank Field 

Jacksonville Jaguars 

The 3-3 Jaguars enter this one off an embarrassing 40-7 road loss to the Cowboys last week. QB Blake Bortles continued his poor form, registering only 149 yards and an interception on 26 passing attempts. Having to play from behind, RB T.J. Yeldon didn’t really have any opportunities to get going. Defensively, it was uncharacteristically poor from the Jaguars. They allowed over 200 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns to Dallas, with QB Dak Prescott also enjoying a strong passing day. I expect the unit led by Calais Campbell and Jalen Ramsey to bounce back with a vengeance here.  

Houston Texans 

After a shaky 0-3 start, the Texans have managed to string together 3 consecutive unconvincing wins. Despite last week’s poor performance, QB Deshaun Watson has looked good so far this season. After allowing 7 sacks last week, the offensive line will need to play better against this strong Jacksonville defensive front. Defensively, the Texans have done a great job this past fortnight. J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney lead an excellent defensive front that can generate pressure at will. Similarly, Kareem Jackson and Tyrann Mathieu lead a strong secondary that has given opposing teams fits. 

Prediction: Jaguars -5 

Results over the past fortnight suggest that there is immense line value on the Jaguars here. Their defence is definitely the best unit in this game and I expect a resurgent performance as they enjoy a home victory here. Jacksonville Jaguars 24-17 Houston Texans. 

Baltimore Ravens vs New Orleans Saints
Ravens at the Line (-2.5)

 Monday, October 22, 7:05 am (AEST), M&T Bank Stadium 

Baltimore Ravens 

The Ravens enter this one off a truly dominant 21-0 road victory over the Titans last week. Buoyed by the competition of Lamar Jackson, QB Joe Flacco has enjoyed a resurgent season in 2018. When Alex Collins and Co can get going in the running game, this Ravens offense can hang with anyone in the league. The Ravens put up a defensive masterclass last week, allowing just 106 total yards and 0 points. They registered a team record 11 sacks, including 3 from Za’Darius Smith. That same level of performance will be needed here against Drew Brees and the high-flying Saints offense. 

New Orleans Saints 

After 4 straight wins, the Saints enjoyed a relaxing bye last week. Drew Brees was excellent in their victory over the Redskins, going 26/29 for 363 yards and 3 touchdowns. Receiver Michael Thomas has continued his stellar play, whilst Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara also form an excellent combination in the running game. The Saints defence has also looked noticeably better in recent weeks. They held a usually strong Redskins rushing attack quiet, whilst also shutting down the Alex Smith led passing game. Away from the Superdome this week, victory over the Ravens won’t prove as easy. 

Prediction: Ravens -2.5 

Whilst the Saints are a very talented side, I believe that this line somewhat underestimates just how good the Ravens are. Buoyed by a raucous home crowd and strong defence, I expect Joe Flacco to continue his strong play and bring home the W here. Baltimore Ravens 27-20 New Orleans Saints. 

San Francisco 49ers vs LA Rams
Rams Halftime/Full Time

Monday, October 22, 7:25 am (AEST), Levi’s Stadium 

San Francisco 

The 49ers were valiant in their Monday Night Football defeat to the Packers last week. Receiver Marquise Goodwin led the way for the Niners, hauling in 4 catches for 126 yards and 2 beautiful touchdowns. Similarly, the RB duo of Matt Breida and Raheem Mostert proved very effective, combining for 148 yards and a score. On defence, the Niners continue to struggle. They allowed 425 passing yards and 2 touchdowns to Aaron Rodgers, whilst also allowing 5.5 yards per carry on the ground. A much better performance will be needed this week against the high-flying Rams offense.  

Los Angeles Rams 

The 6-0 Rams enter this matchup as the form team of the NFL. RB Todd Gurley has been incredible this season, totalling 870 yards from scrimmage and 11 touchdowns on the season. Likewise, QB Jared Goff has continued to show his quality, completing 69% of his passes for over 1900 yards and 12 touchdowns on the campaign. Despite a few shaky performances, the Rams defence still remains one of the best unit in the NFL. A defensive line featuring N’Damukong Suh, Aaron Donald and Michael Brockers is enough to cause any team fits, backed up by their strong corps of Linebackers and defensive backs.  

Prediction: Rams Halftime/Fulltime 

The Rams are the significantly better team in this one. With consecutive spread losses, I think the Rams Halftime/Fulltime option represents good value here. Rams with the comfortable victory here. LA Rams 31-21 San Francisco 49ers. 

Washington Redskins vs Dallas Cowboys
Redskins at the Line (-1.5)

Monday, October 22, 7:25 am (AEST), FedEx Field 

Washington Redskins 

Whilst the stats don’t look too favourable, the Redskins managed a home win over the formidable Panthers last week. RB Adrian Peterson led the way on offense, managing 97 yards on 17 carries in a gritty display. Against the strong Cowboys defence, QB Alex Smith will need to improve on his 4.5 yards per attempt. On defence, the Redskins bounced back with a solid performance. They shut down the strong Panthers rushing attack, whilst also effectively limiting QB Cam Newton. Outspoken CB Josh Norman also redeemed himself, hauling in the game clinching interception. 

Dallas Cowboys 

The Cowboys shocked everyone last week with an outstanding 40-7 victory over Jacksonville. A strong rushing attack led the way, combining for 206 yards and 2 touchdowns on a whopping 42 carries. QB Dak Prescott also managed the game effectively, throwing for 183 yards and 2 touchdowns through the air. Defensively, the Cowboys put in yet another excellent display. They allowed just over 200 yards of offence on the day, causing fits for Jaguars QB Blake Bortles all afternoon. Linebackers Jaylon Smith and Leighton Vander Esch continue to form a formidable duo, whilst Randy Gregory and DeMarcus Lawrence are both having strong seasons as pass rushers. 

Prediction: Redskins -1.5 

This is a very tough one to call but I believe the Redskins have enough to take this one at home. With home field, a better coaching staff and a better QB, I believe the Redskins will do just enough offensively to bring this one home. Washington Redskins 24-20 Dallas Cowboys.