NFL Week 7 – Kansas City Chiefs vs Cincinnati Bengals Preview

NFL Week 7 – Kansas City Chiefs vs Cincinnati Bengals Preview

The Sunday slate of Week 7 comes to a close as the Kansas City Chiefs play host to the Cincinnati Bengals. In a contest featuring two AFC division leaders, I expect a hard-fought and entertaining fixture here. Both sides are coming off narrow heartbreaking losses last week and will be looking to put things right here. As always with the high-profile Sunday Night Football games, there’s plenty of value on offer. Let’s take a look at what I believe to be the 3 best bets on the board in this one.

Where to Watch: ESPN, 7 Mate or NFL Game Pass Monday 11:20 am 
Kansas City Chiefs 

The 5-1 Chiefs return to Arrowhead Stadium after last week’s narrow loss to the Patriots. Patrick Mahomes and the offense were again outstanding, putting up 40 points in a tough New England environment. Mahomes himself threw for 352 yards and 4 touchdowns, 3 of which went to star Receiver Tyreek Hill. RB Kareem Hunt also chipped in with a stellar performance, averaging 8 yards per carry and enjoying 105 yards in the receiving game. They’ll face a tougher test in the stout Bengals defence this week, however this Kansas City offense has overcome every obstacle they’ve faced so far. 

Defensively, things haven’t been as good for the Chiefs this season. Even against a Tom Brady led offense, you just shouldn’t be losing NFL games where you score 40 points. The passing defence in particular was a major problem, allowing 340 yards and a touchdown to Tom Brady with ease. The run defence didn’t hold up much better, allowing 173 yards and 3 touchdowns. Whilst the offence has effectively carried the team so far, this Chiefs defence has to step up for them to be a legitimate Superbowl contender. 

Cincinnati Bengals 

The 4-2 Bengals enter this one off a crushing home loss to the rival Steelers last week. QB Andy Dalton was a part of the problem and definitely wasn’t at his best. He averaged only 5.5 yards per attempt and was sacked 3 times as the Bengals were outclassed by the formidable Steelers defence. RB Joe Mixon looked impressive, registering 64 yards on his 11 carries. The Bengals will be in good stead this week if he can become more of an offensive focal point. 

Defensively, the Bengals couldn’t hand with the high-flying Steelers offense. Ben Roethlisberger carved them apart through the air, to the tune of 369 yards and the game-winning touchdown. James Conner also ran riot on the ground, filling in admirably for Le’Veon Bell with 111 yards and 2 scores. With no sacks or turnovers on the afternoon, it was definitely a day to forget for this usually stout Bengals defence. It doesn’t get any easier this week, coming up against arguably the best offence in the AFC.

Best Bets 
Bengals +6 

This is definitely more of a contrarian play; however I think this is a decent spot for the Bengals here. Up until last week’s defeat, it’s been hard to fault their performances this season. I think this has gone a little under the radar with the NFL betting public and that there is some strong line value on the Bengals here. Fresh off last week’s heartbreaking last-minute defeat, they’ll be looking to restore their advantage in the AFC North. 

Similarly, I don’t think this is a great spot for the Chiefs. Sandwiched between last week’s tough loss to the Patriots and next week’s divisional showdown with the Broncos, the Chiefs may not be completely up for this one. Having covered every game this season, punters are happily jumping on the Chiefs at seemingly any line, usually providing decent value for their opponents. I still expect the Chiefs to win this one, but I believe the Bengals will keep it close and have an outside chance of pulling off the upset.  

1st Quarter Over 11.5 

I had some success with this one in last week’s Sunday Night Football affair and I’m going back to the well again here. With a full game total of 58 points, this would suggest that Vegas is projecting 14.5 points per quarter. Below the key numbers of 13 and 14, I believe there is some strong value on the over here. With the matchup advantages that each of these offenses has, I can see a high scoring first quarter in this one. 

Statistics support this as well. Chiefs games have gone over this first quarter number in 4/6 games so far this season. In Hill, Watkins, Kelce and Hunt, Patrick Mahomes has a host of offensive weapons capable of putting up points quickly. Similarly, Joe Mixon and A.J Green have shown their value for the Bengals offence this season. With only 2-3 scoring possessions required here, I’m fairly confident in this over hitting.  

1st Quarter Chiefs Over 6 Points 

Given how well the Chiefs offense has played so far this season, this total seems too low to me. The Chiefs full game total for this one is 32, suggesting that Vegas expects them to score 8 points per quarter. Below the key number of 7, and with a push at the key number of 6, I think there is immense line value in this one. The numbers support this as the high-flying Chiefs offense has gone over 6 points in the first quarter of 5/6 games so far. 

Best Bet: 1st Quarter Chiefs Over 6 Points 

As touched on earlier, it’s hard to overlook the value with this line. The explosive Chiefs offense is capable of putting up points in a hurry. I expect them to come out firing after last week’s disappointment and put up at least a touchdown in the first quarter. 

Score Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs 31-27 Cincinnati Bengals