NFL Week 7 – Atlanta Falcons vs New York Giants Preview

NFL Week 7 – Atlanta Falcons vs New York Giants Preview

Week 7 of the NFL season concludes in Atlanta as the 2-4 Falcons welcome the 1-5 New York Giants to town. After 3 consecutive defeats, the Falcons got their season somewhat back on track with a home victory last week. The Giants themselves enter this one off 3 straight losses and appear to just be playing out the string already. As such, I’m expecting an urgent and desperate performance from Atlanta that sees them take home the win. Let’s analyse what I believe to be the 3 best bets on the board in this one. 

Where to Watch: ESPN, 7 Mate or NFL Game Pass Tuesday 11:20 am
Atlanta Falcons 

The Falcons enter this one at 2-4 after a season-saving home victory over the Buccaneers last week. Matt Ryan continued his stellar start to the season, completing 31/41 for 355 yards and 3 touchdowns. Julio Jones continued his trend of strong performances, hauling in 10 catches for 144 yards. Despite his 700 yards on the season, he’s still waiting for that elusive first touchdown. Whilst the RB duo of Tevin Coleman and Ito Smith has looked promising so far, they struggled last week and combined for just 57 yards. Against a vulnerable Giants defence, I expect a field day from this high-flying Falcons offense. 

Defensively, the Falcons have been horrendous this season. In fact, their porous pass defence is the primary reason for their poor 2-4 record so far. This was on display again last week, as they allowed Bucs QB Jameis Winston to throw for 395 yards and 4 touchdowns. The rush defence didn’t fare all that much better, allowing over 6 yards per carry to a previously struggling Bucs rushing attack. Against a Giants offense featuring Odell Beckham and Saquon Barkley, this unit needs to deliver a better performance here at home. 

New York Giants 

The 1-5 Giants are pretty much only playing for pride at this point. They enter this matchup off three consecutive losses, including a dreadful showing against the Eagles at home last week. Whilst he hasn’t been aided by a poor offensive line, the poor performances of 37-year-old QB Eli Manning suggest that he’s over the hill at this point. Receiver Odell Beckham and rookie Running Back Saquon Barkley have been the shining lights in an otherwise dismal offence, but it’s hard to succeed in the modern NFL with poor QB play. Against a Falcons defence that has struggled this season, the Giants offense has to step up here. 

Defensively, the Giants just haven’t been up to it this season. Whilst they performed admirably against the run last week, they were carved apart through the air. Eagles QB Carson Wentz threw for 278 yards and 3 touchdowns in a balanced and complete aerial display. Players such as Landon Collins and Alec Ogletree show that this defense has talent, but they just haven’t been able to put it together on the field this season. In the friendly confines of the Atlanta dome, I expect this unit to struggle again here. 

Best Bets 
Falcons -4.5 

Whilst I’m usually one for contrarian picks in the NFL, this is definitely a major public play. Although the Falcons have largely struggled this season, I just can’t back the Giants anymore. The Falcons offense is far and away the best unit in this game and I expect them to dominate a struggling Giants defence. Whilst I think the Giants can put up points in this one, Eli Manning simply won’t be able to hang with Matt Ryan and Co. 

Especially under the key numbers of 6 and 7, I’m quite confident that the Falcons cover this 4.5-point spread. The passing offence will lead the way and Julio Jones will notch his first touchdown of the year as the Falcons eclipse 30 in this one. Defensively, the Falcons will make just enough plays to get the job done. Falcons by 7 here. 

Over 54.5 Points 

With the way recent Falcons home games have played out, it’s hard to look past the over in this one. Last week’s game against the Buccaneers is a reasonable facsimile, and that one ended with 63 total points. In particular, I expect the Falcons offense to have no trouble scoring on the Giants defence. The Falcons have eclipsed 30 points in each of their four home fixtures so far, a trend that I see continuing here. 

They’ve also allowed an average of 36 points in their last 3 home games. Whilst these offences were better than the Giants unit, this is simply a high-scoring team that has proven to be an over machine at home. The conditions in the Falcons dome are very conducive to strong offensive output and I believe this total is probably 5-6 points too low. 

1st Quarter Falcons Team Total Over 5.5 

Again I’m coming back to one of my favourite markets on the board. This is simply a line with excellent value on the over. The Falcons full team total is 29.5 points here, which equals roughly 7.5 points per quarter. Under the key numbers of 6 and 7, I believe this total represents immense value. The numbers also back this one up, with the Falcons heading over the total in their last 3 home games. 

Best Bet: 1st Quarter Falcons Team Total Over 5.5 

As just touched on, it’s hard to overlook this bet. In front of a primetime national audience, I expect a fast start from the Falcons offense here. Their explosive unit should have no difficulties putting up points on this weak Giants defence. I predict at least 7 points for Atlanta in this first quarter here. 

Score Prediction: Atlanta Falcons 31-24 New York Giants