Week 7 kicks off in Arizona as the 1-5 Cardinals welcome the 2-4 Denver Broncos to town. After two dreadful performances to start the season, the Cardinals have been much more competitive in recent weeks. Led by QB Josh Rosen, Arizona will be looking to prove their worth in their lone primetime game of the season. The disappointing Denver Broncos head into this one needing a win in the worst way. Coach Vance Joseph and QB Case Keenum are both fighting for their jobs in this one as Denver looks to get its season back on track. In what promises to be a hard-fought and competitive fixture, let’s analyse where the value lies.
Where to Watch: ESPN, 7 Mate or NFL Game Pass Friday 11:20 am
Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals enter this matchup off the back of a 10-point loss to the Minnesota Vikings last week. QB Josh Rosen looked a little better, completing 21/31 passes for 240 yards. He’ll need to continue to improve for the Cardinals to have a chance towards the second half of the season. Running Back Davis Johnson continued to struggle, averaging just 3.1 yards per carry. With a struggling offensive line and a stacked defensive box, things haven’t been easy for the former star RB. The ageless Larry Fitzgerald continue to remain the main threat in the Cards’ passing game.
Defensively, the Cardinals have looked stronger in recent weeks. They dominated the 49ers offense a fortnight ago, in a performance that saw Chandler Jones pick up defensive player of the week. Against a high-flying Vikings offense, they did a solid job containing Kirk Cousins and the passing game. However, they struggled mightily to stop the run, allowing 195 yards and 2 scores on the ground last week. Against a Broncos offense that tends to favour the run, this simply has to improve here in Week 7.
Denver Broncos
After 4 consecutive losses, the Denver Broncos head into this one at a precarious 2-4. They fought valiantly at home against the Rams last week, narrowly falling by 3 points. On offense, QB Case Keenum delivered one of his better performances of the season last week. He threw for 322 yards and 2 scores, which featured a big day from Wide Receiver Emmanuel Sanders. The Running game couldn’t manage to get anything going against the strong Rams front, managing just 60 yards on 17 carries. RB duo Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman will need to perform better to give the Broncos a chance in this one.
The vaunted Broncos pass defence did a great job containing the excellent Rams passing game last week. QB Jared Goff was limited to 14/28 for 201 yards and an interception, being sacked 5 times in the process. It was on the ground where the Broncos were dominated, with star RB Todd Gurley rushing for 208 yards and 2 touchdowns on just 28 carries. Led by Von Miller, Chris Harris Junior and Darian Stewart, I’d expect the Broncos rush defence to do a stronger job here against Arizona.
Best Bets
Arizona Cardinals +2.5
This is very much a contrarian play; however, I believe the Cardinals represent good value as home underdogs here. Denver has struggled mightily on the road this season, suffering comprehensive losses to both the Ravens and Jets. Last week aside, Broncos QB Case Keenum has had a very poor season. He’s thrown more interceptions than touchdowns so far and calls for his benching ring louder every week.
I believe a strong Cardinals front seven can cause Keenum problems here, with a resurgent Josh Rosen doing just enough to give the Cards a win here. Arizona could’ve easily won their last 2 home games against both the Bears and Seahawks, however poor late game execution cost them. If the defence steps up and Rosen can manage the game effectively, Arizona should ultimately take this one out.
Under 41.5
In a game where the two defences match up well, I expect points to be at a premium in this one. The Cardinals offense has only put up 20 points once this season and that was with a large amount of help from their defence against the 49ers. Similarly, Denver have struggled of late, only going over 20 points once in their last five. With a shaky QB situation, I don’t really see that improving here.
A couple of good benchmarks for this game are the Cardinals two most recent home games against the Bears and Seahawks. Both of these were hard-fought and low-scoring games that went down to the wire. With neither team having the offensive firepower to put the other side away, I feel as though this line is 4-5 points too high.
4th Quarter Under 12 points
Tying in with the two earlier predictions, I’m expecting a low scoring and competitive game. Extrapolating this 4th quarter total over a full game would suggest a line of 48 points. This is a full touchdown over the 41.5 total and as such, I believe there’s some good value on the under here. Again, using those two earlier Cardinals home games, the 4th quarter points totals were only 3 and 10 respectively. Both defences will be counted on to bring it home for their sides late. I’d expect somewhere between 3-10 points in a tense final fourth-quarter finish.
Best Bet: Cardinals +2.5
In a game between two evenly matched teams, I’ll take the Cardinals with home-field and 2.5 points. Whilst they’ve struggled so far, this is a team with some very talented defensive players. I expect Arizona to at least keep this one close, if not win outright.
Score Prediction: Arizona Cardinals 20-17 Denver Broncos