Week 5 was arguably the best week of the NFL season so far. The Patriots kicked things off with a big home win over the Colts, whilst the Steelers got back on track with a 24-point home win over the Falcons. Minnesota also managed an upset win over the Eagles, whilst Kansas City enjoyed a comfortable home win over Jacksonville. This helps set the scene for an exciting Week 6 that will define many team’s seasons. Highlights include the Bengals hosting the Steelers in another instalment of this epic AFC North rivalry, whilst the high-flying Rams travel to Denver to take on the Broncos. Without further ado, let’s take a look at the value on offer in Week 6.
Monday, October 15, 4am (AEST), Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Atlanta Falcons
Coming off of a dreadful loss last week, the 1-4 Falcons need a win in the worst way. QB Matt Ryan fought hard, throwing for 285 yards and a score. However, the running game just couldn’t get going, averaging only 3.3 yards per carry. Defensively, the Falcons were carved apart by the Steelers to the tune of 5 touchdowns. Against a strong Buccaneers passing game, they’ll need a better performance to get back on track this week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Fresh off of a Week 5 bye, the Buccaneers last outing was a 48-10 rout against the Bears. Ryan Fitzpatrick was benched for returning QB Jameis Winston, who delivered a mixed performance in his return. Ultimately, it was defensively where the Bucs lost this game. They let often maligned QB Mitch Trubisky throw for 354 yards and 6 touchdowns on them, in addition to 139 yards on the ground. They’ll face a tough challenge this week in the strong Falcons offense.
Prediction: Buccaneers +4
Given their poor performances to start the season, it’s tough for me to give up 4 points with the Falcons here. With an extra week of preparation, I expect a strong game plan from the Bucs coaching staff that will help keep them competitive. Falcons 30-27 Buccaneers.
Monday, October 15, 4am (AEST), Paul Brown Stadium
Cincinnati Bengals
With 4 victories in their first 5 games, the Cincinnati Bengals represent one of the form teams of the AFC. QB Andy Dalton has had an excellent start to the season, completing over 65% of his passes for 1445 yards and 12 touchdowns. Receiver AJ Green remains a star in the receiving game, whilst the return of RB Joe Mixon should bolster the rushing attack. The Bengals defence had one of their best efforts of the season last week, forcing 3 turnovers and holding the Dolphins to just 17 points. They’ll need a repeat of that here against a resurgent Steelers offense.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers bounced back in style last week with a 41-17 home win over the Bengals. QB Ben Roethlisberger threw for 250 yards and 3 scores, whilst RB James Conner managed 110 yards and 2 touchdowns of his own. On defence, the Steelers did an excellent job limiting the Falcons offense. T.J Watt and Cameron Heyward led the way, combining for 11 tackles and 4.5 sacks on the afternoon.
Prediction: Bengals -2.5
With everyone showing love for the Steelers here, I think there’s some line value on the Bengals -2.5. They’ve got a strong home field advantage and the better overall roster. I expect a strong Andy Dalton performance in a close Bengals victory. Bengals 27-23 Steelers.
Monday, October 15, 4am (AEST), FirstEnergy Stadium
Cleveland Browns
The Browns enter this one fresh off of a gritty home overtime win over the Ravens last week. QB Baker Mayfield led the way, throwing for 342 yards and a touchdown on the afternoon. It was on defence where the Browns really stepped up and won this game. They allowed just 5.3 yards per pass attempt to the Ravens and didn’t concede a touchdown all afternoon. This will be tough to keep up here against a strong Chargers offense.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers enter this matchup off of a dominant home victory over the Raiders. QB Phillip Rivers led the way, throwing for 339 yards and 2 touchdowns on just 27 attempts. RB Melvin Gordon also put in a strong performance, enjoying 120 total yards and a touchdown of his own. On defense, the Chargers completely shut down the Raiders offense. They allowed only 41 rushing yards all afternoon and effectively limited QB Derek Carr.
Prediction: Over 4.5 touchdowns
I think both offenses here match up well with the opposing defences. Phillip Rivers and Baker Mayfield have both shown a proclivity for throwing downfield. I expect a competitive game with 5-6 total touchdowns. Browns 27-24 Chargers.
Monday, October 15, 4am (AEST), Wembley Stadium
Oakland Raiders
The 1-4 Raiders were on the other end of that Chargers beatdown last week. The one-dimensional offense struggled to get going and was held to under 300 total yards with only 1 touchdown. Whilst the rushing defence was solid, they just couldn’t contain the strong Chargers passing game. A unit led by Tahir Whitehead, Reggie Nelson and Bruce Irvin will need a stronger performance this week against Russell Wilson and Co.
Seattle Seahawks
The 2-3 Seahawks were valiant in defeat last week against the Rams. QB Russell Wilson was very efficient, throwing for 198 yards and 3 touchdowns on his 21 attempts. The effective Seahawks rushing attack really helped to control the game, totalling 190 yards and 2 scores. It was on defence where they struggled to close out this game. They allowed over 450 yards and 4 touchdowns to the high-powered Rams offense, including 3 to star RB Todd Gurley. They’ll need a better showing here against a vulnerable Raiders offense.
Prediction: Raiders +3.5
On a neutral field, I can’t justify favouring the Seahawks here by 3.5. These are two inconsistent teams that will likely play out a close one here. I expect a better performance from Derek Carr that keeps the Raiders competitive. Raiders 21-17 Seahawks.
Monday, October 15, 4am (AEST), Hard Rock Stadium
Miami Dolphins
Fresh off of back-to-back road losses, the Dolphins return home to take on the Bears. QB Ryan Tannehill was poor last week, throwing for just 185 yards and 2 interceptions on 35 attempts. The strong rushing performance from duo Frank Gore and Kenyan Drake acts as a good foundation to build on. After a strong first three quarters, the Dolphins defence allowed 24 4th quarter points to the Bengals. Given their strong start to the season, I expect the unit led by Reshad Jones, Kiko Alonso and Robert Quinn to bounce back here.
Chicago Bears
After last week’s bye, the Bears enter this one smarting off their 48-10 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. QB Mitch Trubisky delivered a performance for the ages, with over 400 total yards and 6 passing touchdowns on the afternoon. Defensively, they also dominated a strong Buccaneers offense. They allowed only 60 rushing yards, whilst also enjoying 3 interceptions from 2 different Quarterbacks. The newly acquired Khalil Mack continues to lead the way, with 5 sacks and 4 forced fumbles on the year.
Prediction: Dolphins +3.5
Despite an impressive Week 4 performance, I struggle to see why the Bears are 3.5-point favourites here. I expect a low-scoring competitive battle and will take the value with the Dolphins here. Bears 17-16 Dolphins.
Monday, October 15, 4am (AEST), U.S. Bank Stadium
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings got their season back on track last week with an impressive road win over the Eagles. QB Kirk Cousins led the way, throwing for over 300 yards and a touchdown. Impressive Receiver duo Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs effectively combined for over 200 of these yards. On defence, the Vikings also did an effective job of keeping the Eagles in check. Big man Linval Joseph enjoyed a 61-yard touchdown whilst the dominant Vikings front seven won the game in the trenches.
Arizona Cardinals
Despite an awful statistical performance, the Cardinals somehow managed a win last week. QB Josh Rosen threw for 170 yards and a score, whilst RB David Johnson enjoyed 2 touchdowns on the ground. It was on defence where the Cardinals really stepped up and won this game. Safety Budda Baker had an impressive 16 tackles and a sack, whilst Defensive End Chandler Jones won Defensive Player of the Week for his dominant display.
Prediction: Vikings -9.5
This is probably my best bet of the week. The Vikings are simply better than the Cardinals across the field and won’t make the same mistakes they did against the Bills. Expect a comfortable performance from Kirk Cousins and Co en route to a big win. Vikings 34-13 Cardinals.
Monday, October 15, 4am (AEST), MetLife Stadium
New York Jets
The Jets bounced back in a big way last week, with a strong 34-16 home win over the Broncos. QB Sam Darnold managed the game well, throwing for 198 yards and 3 touchdowns on the afternoon. Running Backs Isaiah Crowell and Bilal Powell stole the show, combining for 318 yards in a truly dominant display. Defensively, the Jets were very stout in controlling an anaemic Broncos offense. Defensive Lineman Leonard Williams led the way with 2 sacks, whilst Safety Jamal Adams kept things in check on the back end.
Indianapolis Colts
The 1-4 Colts fought valiantly last week but couldn’t do enough against the resurgent Patriots. Andrew Luck put the team on his back with 365 yards and 3 touchdowns, but the running game unfortunately struggled. Defensively, the Colts were Carved apart by Brady and the Patriots. Brady threw for 341 yards and 3 touchdowns himself, whilst RB Sony Michel managed 98 rushing yards and a score. Plagued by a host of injuries, this unit may struggle against an upstart Jets offense.
Prediction: Jets -2.5
Based on performances so far this season, the Jets are the better overall team. With the Colts defence decimated by injuries, I expect a strong Jets rushing attack to control the game here. Jets 24-17 Colts.
Monday, October 15, 4am (AEST), FedEx Field
Washington Redskins
After an embarrassing display on Monday Night Football, the Redskins return home to take on Cam Newton and the Panthers. The Redskins offense struggled to get going, managing only 39 yards on the afternoon. Similarly, QB Alex Smith couldn’t establish an effective rhythm against a strong Saints pass defence. The Redskins were carved up on defence, allowing Drew Brees to complete 26/29 for 363 yards and 3 touchdowns. It didn’t end there as they allowed a further 3 touchdowns on the ground in a poor display.
Carolina Panthers
Graham Gano saved the Panthers blushes last week, kicking the game-winner in a 2-point victory over the Giants. QB Cam Newton delivered a mixed performance, throwing for 237 yards and 2 touchdowns, but also throwing for 2 interceptions. Defensively, the stout Panthers front seven was too much for the struggling Giants rushing attack. However, they struggled to contain the passing game, allowing an unusual 382 yards and 3 touchdowns.
Prediction: Over 4.5 touchdowns
Based off of recent performances, there is strong value in over 4.5 touchdowns here. These are two offenses that are capable of piling up points and I believe 5-6 touchdowns is likely here. Panthers 24-20 Redskins.
Monday, October 15, 4am (AEST), NRG Stadium
Houston Texans
Red zone struggles aside, the Texans looked good in a primetime home win over the Texas rival Cowboys. Whilst the rushing attack struggled, Deshaun Watson and the passing offense excelled. Watson had 375 yards and a score on the evening, including 151 yards for star Receiver DeAndre Hopkins. Defensively, the Texans did a very solid job. They held Zeke Elliott to just 54 yards on 20 carries, whilst the anaemic Cowboys passing offense struggled to get going. I’d expect them to build off of this against a vulnerable Bills offense this week.
Buffalo Bills
Fresh off of a surprising home win over the Titans, The Bills head into this one with a 2-3 record. QB Josh Allen was dreadful last week, managing only 82 yards and an interception throwing the ball. 144 yards and a touchdown on the ground was definitely the driving force behind the victory here. On defence, the Bills were again fantastic. They held Titans QB Marcus Mariota to just 129 passing yards and didn’t allow a touchdown all afternoon. Against this resurgent Texans passing offense, they’ll need a similar level of performance this week.
Prediction: Texans -8.5
Given last week’s Bills victory, there is some line value on the Texans here. If they can fix some of those red-zone issues, I expect a big victory. Josh Allen also stands little chance against this imposing front seven. Texans 31-10 Bills.
Monday, October 15, 7:05am (AEST), Broncos Stadium at Mile High
Denver Broncos
After last week’s horror show it doesn’t get any easier for the Broncos, as they play host to the high-flying Rams. QB Case Keenum did put up 377 yards last week, however most of these definitely had an ‘empty calorie’ feel to them. The formerly dominant Broncos defence looked a shadow of themselves here, allowing an incredible 323 yards on the ground. They also struggled against Jets QB Sam Darnold, who managed 3 touchdowns on the afternoon. Against the elite Rams offense, this simply has to improve this week.
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams enter this one 5-0 after a gritty road win over the rival Seahawks last week. QB Jared Goff was again stellar, throwing for 321 yards and a touchdown on just 32 attempts. Star RB Todd Gurley led the way offensively, totalling 113 yards and 3 touchdowns from scrimmage. Surprisingly, it was the usually stout Rams defence that struggled. They allowed 190 yards on the ground as well as 3 passing touchdowns to QB Russell Wilson. Ndamukong Suh, Aaron Donald and Co will face another tough test this week in the Denver altitude.
Prediction: Broncos +7.5
The Rams definitely have the talent here and should win this game. However, facing the Denver altitude off of a tough divisional road game will be tough. I expect Case Keenum to do enough on offense to keep this one close.
Monday, October 15, 7:25am (AEST), AT&T Stadium
Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys enter this one off of a close road loss to the Houston Texans. QB Dak Prescott was again underwhelming, throwing for just 208 yards and 2 interceptions on the evening. Star RB Zeke Elliott couldn’t get going either, with only 54 yards on 20 carries. On defence, the Cowboys did an incredible job of holding the Texans in the red zone. Linebackers Leighton Vander Esch and Jaylon Smith were the standouts, combining for 24 tackles and a sack. Against the unpredictable Blake Bortles, keep an eye out on these two this week.
Jacksonville Jaguars
In what was billed as the game of the week, the Jaguars struggled in a 30-14 loss to the Chiefs. Despite 430 yards in the air, QB Blake Bortles had 5 costly turnovers that put the Jaguars in a 20-0 halftime hold. This meant they had to go away from RB T.J. Yeldon, who had looked impressive early. Defensively, the Jaguars looked solid, picking off Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes twice. Calais Campbell, Jalen Ramsey and Co could have their way this week against an anaemic Cowboys passing offense.
Prediction: Cowboys +3.5
This is definitely a contrarian pick, but I believe the Cowboys stand a chance here. They have an impressive 2-0 home record and Jags QB Blake Bortles has struggled mightily on the road. Expect a close one here that could go either way. Jaguars 21-20 Cowboys.
Monday, October 15, 7:25am (AEST), Nissan Stadium
Tennessee Titans
Fresh off of last week’s poor loss to the Bills, the Titans head home to face the Ravens. QB Marcus Mariota struggled, completing just 14/26 for 129 yards and a pick. Expect the RB duo of Derrick Henry and Dion Lewis to see more of the ball this week. On defence, the Titans were again excellent. They completely shut down the Bills passing attack and allowed just 3.3 yards per carry on the ground. Led by Jurrell Casey, the Titans front seven continues to be one of the best in the NFL. On the back end, a CB duo of Logan Ryan and Malcolm Butler keep things in check.
Baltimore Ravens
After an impressive win over the Steelers a fortnight ago, the Ravens struggled against the Browns last week. Joe Flacco delivered a dud performance, going 29/56 for 298 yards and a pick. RB duo Alex Collins and Buck Allen looked impressive last week and should see more carries in this one. Defensively, the Ravens continue to be one of the best units in the NFL. They held the Browns rushing offense in check and allowed just one touchdown on the afternoon. Expect a strong performance here against Marcus Mariota and Co.
Prediction: Titans +3.5
Between two strong and evenly matched teams, I think there’s some value here with the Titans +3.5 and would suggest buying the extra half point if necessary. Buoyed by their strong defence and a raucous home crowd, I believe the Titans have enough to take this game outright. Titans 20-17 Ravens.