NFL Week 6 – New England Patriots vs Kansas City Chiefs Preview

NFL Week 6 – New England Patriots vs Kansas City Chiefs Preview

Sunday Night Football brings us one of the games of the year so far, as the New England Patriots play host to the AFC-leading Kansas City Chiefs. New England enters this matchup off of back-to-back dominant home wins over the Dolphins and Colts. Kansas City has barely put a foot wrong this season, making light work of their difficult schedule en route to a 5-0 start. In what shapes up as an incredibly exciting and intriguing matchup, let’s take a look at where the value lies.

Where to Watch: ESPN, 7 Mate or NFL Game Pass Monday 11:20 am
New England Patriots 

After a shaky 1-2 start, consecutive home wins have restored everyone’s faith in the Patriots. Tom Brady led the way last week, throwing for 341 yards and 3 touchdowns in a comfortable home win over the Colts. 1st round pick Sony Michel also performed admirably, notching 98 rushing yards and a score of his own. Josh ‘Flash’ Gordon showed his potential in this high-powered offense, hauling in 2 catches for 50 yards and a touchdown. Against a Chiefs defence that has struggled at times this season, the Patriots offence has the opportunity to make a statement this week. 

Defensively, New England has looked stronger in recent weeks. They shut down an anaemic Dolphins passing offence, before effectively limiting Andrew Luck and Co last week. The Colts running game was essentially eliminated in Week 5, allowing the strong Patriots passing defence to zero in on Andrew Luck. Whilst Luck did have 365 yards and 3 touchdowns, a lot of these were ‘empty calories’ as the Colts were chasing the game. Against the high-powered Chiefs offense, this unit will need to be at their best this week. 

Kansas City Chiefs 

The high-flying Chiefs enter this matchup 5-0, fresh off of a comfortable home win over the Jaguars last week. Despite his very strong start, QB Patrick Mahomes somewhat struggled in this one. He went 22/38 for 313 yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions. Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins combine for one of the best receiving trios in the NFL, whilst RB Kareem Hunt has continued to put in strong performances of late. This unit is definitely the strength of the Chiefs and will need to be at their best to manage a road win in Foxborough. 

Defensively, the Chiefs put in their best effort of the season against the Jaguars last week. They forced 5 turnovers from Jags QB Blake Bortles in a dominant performance from start to finish. This included 4 interceptions from Kansas City’s opportunistic defence, highlighted by a pick-six from Defensive End Chris Jones. After struggling through the first 3 weeks of the season, this usually formidable Chiefs defence has seemingly found its groove. Against a high-powered offense in a difficult road environment, here is where this unit can truly make a statement. 

Best Bets 
Chiefs +3.5 

Given their incredibly strong start to the season, it’s hard to overlook the Chiefs here when getting 3.5 points. This is likely a public play, however, I feel as though the Chiefs match up very well with the Patriots here. They have by far the best offence the Patriots have faced this season and I think that Hill, Kelce and Watkins can have their way here.  

The dual-threat ability of QB Patrick Mahomes will likely cause problems for this Patriots defence that has looked vulnerable at times this season. Similarly, the Chiefs defence has turned a corner in recent weeks and I believe they’re capable of limiting Brady and Co. Going through the key number of 3, I expect the Chiefs to keep this one close, if not go for the outright victory. 

Chiefs-3.5 (1H) at $4.50 

This play represents too much value for me to ignore. If the Chiefs are to win this game in the tough Foxborough environment, I believe they need to get off to a fast start. The shock factor of Mahomes and the strong Chiefs offense will be difficult for the Patriots defence to initially adjust to, leaving room for a few early Kansas City touchdowns. 

Similarly, the Chiefs offense has shown an excellent ability in the red-zone this season. When they are in scoring opportunities, they just don’t leave points on the board. As such, I believe it is very feasible for them to get off to a 7-14-point halftime lead that proves difficult for the Patriots to overcome. Whilst the likelihood of this isn’t over 50%, the $4.50 price tag makes it a worthwhile value play. 

1st Quarter Over 11.5 Points 

When you consider the halftime line is 29 points, this is another line where there is immense value. Tying in with my earlier predictions, I’m expecting the Chiefs to get off to a fast start and put points on the board early. The Patriots offense are no slouches either and are more than capable of putting up points early. Extrapolating this line over a full game, you’d expect a point total of just 46. 

In this game between two offensive powerhouses, the total is significantly higher at 59.5. As such, you can see the significant line value that exists with this bet. Something like 14-17 points is very realistic to expect with these two offenses, who are both prone to quick scoring drives.  

Best Bet: 1st Quarter Over 11.5 Points 

Whilst I think each of these bets offer very good value, it’s hard to overlook the Over 11.5 points in the first quarter. I expect this to be a high scoring affair, with roughly 60 total points to be scored. The bulk of these will likely occur in the first half, as the defences struggle to adjust to both of these high-powered offenses. 

Score Prediction: Chiefs 31-27 Patriots