NFL Week 5 – Houston Texans vs Dallas Cowboys Preview

NFL Week 5 – Houston Texans vs Dallas Cowboys Preview

The Sunday Week 5 NFL action draws to a close as the 1-3 Houston Texans host the 2-2 Dallas Cowboys on Sunday Night Football. Houston enters this matchup after notching its first win of the season last week on the road against Indianapolis. Dallas comes into this one off of a narrow home win over Detroit last week. With 1-4 teams missing the playoffs over 94% of the time, the Texans will surely lay it all on the line here at home. Similarly, in a competitive NFC, the Cowboys playoff hopes will suffer a big hit if they can’t get a win here.

Where to Watch: ESPN, 7 Mate or NFL Game Pass on Monday 11:20am 
Houston Texans 

The Texans offense got right last week, as they put up 37 points in a tough road environment. QB Deshaun Watson led the way, throwing for 375 yards and 2 touchdowns, before adding another score on the ground. Receivers DeAndre Hopkins and Keke Coutee both managed 100-yard afternoons in a dominant passing display. In order for this Texans offense to truly get going, the Running Back duo of Lamar Miller and Alfred Blue will need to deliver better performances. The two combined for just 80 yards on 27 carries, which won’t cut it against the Cowboys stout run defence. 

Defensively, the Texans struggled last week. A fast finishing Andrew Luck nearly brought it home late for the Colts, on his way to 464 yards and 4 touchdowns. Fortunately, they were very stout against a weak Colts rushing attack, allowing just 41 yards on 17 carries for the afternoon. This will need to continue this week against a strong Cowboys running game led by Zeke Elliott. Look for a front seven led by JJ Watt and Jadeveon Clowney to attack a makeshift Cowboys offensive line. 

Dallas Cowboys 

The balanced Cowboys offense had one of their best showings of the season last week at home to Detroit. Maligned QB Dak Prescott looked a lot better, throwing for 255 yards and 2 scores on just 27 attempts. RB Ezekiel Elliott played like a man possessed, rushing for 152 yards and receiving for a further 88 yards and a touchdown. In a Cowboys offense devoid of other weapons, I expect Zeke to effectively carry the load again this week. 

On defence, the Cowboys were solid yet unspectacular. They allowed 307 yards and 2 touchdowns on over 10 yards per attempt by QB Matt Stafford. That said, the Cowboys contained the Lions well in the running game, holding them to under 100 total yards. Defensive End Demarcus Lawrence was the star performer, with 8 tackles and an impressive 3 sacks on the afternoon. Led by Lawrence and emerging Linebacker Jaylen Smith, the Cowboys defence will have their work cut out for them this week against Watson and Co.

Best Bets 
Cowboys +3.5 

Going through the key number of 3, I believe there is some good value on the Cowboys here. The Texans have shown me nothing this season that suggests they deserve to be favourites by this much here. Their lone home game earlier this season was a poor loss to the hapless Giants. With the strong form of the Cowboys defence this season, I believe they’ll be able to have some success against a porous Houston offensive line.  

Similarly, with the form that Ezekiel Elliott is in, the Cowboys have an offensive focal point capable of carrying the load. I expect a strong performance from Elliott here that frees up QB Dak Prescott to go back to more of a game manager role that he was so successful with in 2016. In what is essentially a toss-up game I’ll take the value with the Cowboys +3.5. 

Total Touchdowns Over 4.5 

A total of 45.5 suggests to me that the bookies are expecting somewhere between 5-6 touchdowns in total. As such, this over 4.5 touchdowns represents decent value at $1.80. With these two offenses featuring stars such as Hopkins and Elliott, there is definitely the strong potential to eclipse this relatively low bar. In line with the total, I’m expecting 5-6 touchdowns here in a relatively close game. 

Texans games have eclipsed this mark in 3 of their 4 games this season as their passing game has taken off in recent weeks. Similarly, it appears the Cowboys have figured out how to get the best out of Zeke Elliott again in their best display of the season last week. Whilst I’m not expecting either team to go gangbusters, they’ll do enough to combine for over 4.5 touchdowns here. 

Texans Team Total Under 24.5 

Tying in with my Cowboys +3.5 spread pick, I’m expecting a solid performance from their defence here. They haven’t allowed over 24 points all season, despite facing some talented Quarterbacks such as Matt Stafford, Russell Wilson and Cam Newton. Against a one-dimensional Texans offense, I believe their defensive front will be able to pressure Watson as the Houston passing game struggles to get going. 

Going through the key number of 24, I think there is some good value here in a very strong Cowboys defensive unit. This type of total means the Texans offense will need at least 5-6 scoring drives, which I just don’t see them managing. Expect Demarcus Lawrence, Jaylen Smith and Co to do enough to contain Deshaun Watson. 

Best Bet: Cowboys +3.5 

There’s just too much value to pass up the Cowboys plus the 3.5 points here. Not only do I think they cover this, but they have every chance of winning the game outright. Expect another standout performance from Zeke Elliott as he puts the team on his back in a close Cowboys victory. 

Score Prediction: Dallas Cowboys 24-20 Houston Texans