In the next instalment of our NBA Futures series, we preview the eagerly anticipated MVP market. The oddsmakers are expecting a few changes in the pecking order this season, with young guns Giannis Antetokounmpo and Anthony Davis representing two of the top three favourites. That being said, it’s difficult to account veterans like Kawhi Leonard, Stephen Curry, Lebron James and James Harden given their track records. This article will cover who I believe to be the top 6 contenders for this prestigious award as well as my two best bets on the board.
Kawhi Leonard ($8)
Fresh off of a high-profile off-season move to the Toronto Raptors, Kawhi Leonard has a lot to prove this season. The 2016/17 season was by far the best of Kawhi’s stellar career as he averaged 25.5 points per game en route to a 61-win season. With other stars either playing on stacked teams or expected to take it easy this regular season, Kawhi has a great shot at taking home the trophy if he can match these very achievable numbers. I’m bullish on the Raptors this season and feel as though they have the talent and depth to be one of the front runners this season. Kawhi will no doubt be at the forefront of this and represents excellent value at $8.
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($5)
One of the most athletic players in the NBA, the 23-year-old Giannis is coming off of a career year where he averaged 26.9 points and 10 rebounds per game. Buoyed by the addition of new coach Mike Budenholzer, I expect Giannis to build off of this strong campaign in 2018/19. Besides the projected top 3 of the Celtics, Raptors and Sixers, the rest of the Eastern Conference looks relatively weak. It’s very realistic this season for Giannis to average 30 points per game as the Bucks win over 50 games en route to the #4 seed. If he achieves all of this, Giannis will definitely be one of the front runners for MVP.
Stephen Curry ($17)
Two-time MVP and three-time NBA champion Stephen Curry enters the 2018/19 season as the unquestioned best Point Guard in the NBA. 17/18 was another solid season by Curry’s excellent standards as he averaged 26 points, 6 assists and 5 rebounds per game. The only things against him this season are sharing the spotlight with 4 other All Stars and planned rest as Golden State prepare for another title run. Nevertheless, $17 still represents immense value for Curry, who is sure to play an important part on the NBA’s best team this season.
Anthony Davis ($5)
Anthony Davis enters 2018/19 off the best season of his career that saw him lead the Pelicans to the Conference Semi-Finals. Davis averaged 28 points, 11 rebounds and 2.5 blocks in 17/18, whilst also improving his outside shooting. Like Giannis, Davis is one of the most physically imposing players in the NBA and will no doubt be pushing hard this regular season. The only thing working against him is the incredibly tough Western Conference. Whilst the Pelicans should make the playoffs, I believe it will prove difficult for Davis to match the 50 wins and top 4 seed that I can see Giannis getting out East
LeBron James ($4.25)
As the current $4.25 favourite, it’s tough to write this list without including LeBron James. Fresh off yet another demolition by the Golden State Warriors, LeBron has now ventured west and taken his talents to the Lakers. Off of last year’s strong regular season campaign, LeBron is definitely in the running for MVP this year. If the Lakers improve significantly whilst the Cavaliers struggle, he’ll have a strong narrative in his favour. However, like Davis, the thing that works against him is the competition in a tough Western Conference. Unless LeBron can lead the Lakers to a top 4 seed in the west, I just don’t see him winning MVP this year. At only $4.25, I’d recommend staying away and taking advantage of the better value available.
James Harden ($6.50)
Another player fresh off of a career year, it would be unfair of me to leave the 2017/18 MVP off this list. Harden had a phenomenal last campaign, averaging 30 points, 8.8 rebounds and 5.4 assists per game as he led the Rockets to the NBA’s best record. Whilst Harden has always been a strong regular season performer, it’s been his performance in the playoffs that has often come under question. With home court advantage still not enough to get them past the Warriors, you have to wonder how hard the Rockets and Harden will be pushing this season. Nevertheless, $6.50 to win is still good value for a player with Harden’s track record.
Best Bet: Kawhi Leonard at $8
When analysing the above options, Kawhi Leonard at $8 sticks out to me as the best value on the board. Behind King KD, you could make a very strong case that Kawhi was the second best player in the association in 2016/17. He comes to the Raptors with a bit of a tarnished reputation and a ton to prove. In a relatively weak Eastern Conference and with everything to play for, I’m predicting that Kawhi will be back to his best in 2018/19. If the Raptors can obtain the #1 seed in the East, you’d be hard pressed to find someone that edges Kawhi out for MVP.
Next Best: Giannis at $5
For me, Giannis is up there with Kawhi as the most likely players to win the MVP. The reason I like the Kawhi bet that little bit more is the extra value of $8 compared to $5. With new Head Coach Mike Budenholzer in the fold, I’m expecting the Bucks to reach another level offensively. 50 wins, a top 4 seed in the East and 30 points per game are all very achievable benchmarks for the Bucks and Giannis. As the clear alpha on the team, Giannis would enjoy all the credit for this and be in strong contention for MVP.