Our NBA Futures previews continue with an analysis of the all-important Coach of the Year market. Celtics Coach Brad Stevens has emerged as the $2.50 frontrunner for the award, but he is sure to be tested by veterans Steve Kerr, Quin Snyder and Gregg Popovich. Rookie Raptors Head Coach Nick Nurse has a real shot at the award if he can get his talented team to gel, whilst new Bucks Head Coach Mike Budenholzer will be hoping to recapture some of his Atlanta magic. This article will feature who I believe to be the top 6 candidates for the award as well as the two best bets available.
Brad Stevens ($2.50)
Brad Stevens did a master coaching job for the Boston Celtics last season and is rightfully the heavy favourite heading into 2018/19. The Celtics managed the #2 seed in the east and 55 wins in 2017/18, pushing the Cavaliers to 7 games in the Eastern Conference Finals. This is even more impressive when you consider this was accomplished with All-Star Small Forward Gordon Hayward out for the season and Star Point Guard Kyrie Irving missing the playoff run. As the favourites in the eastern conference, it’s very possible that the Celtics end up with the best record in the NBA. Should Stevens accomplish this, he’s a near shoe-in for Coach of the Year.
Quin Snyder ($7)
Quin Snyder has done a phenomenal job coaching this Jazz team, reaching the Conference Semis in each of the past two seasons. The Jazz battled a slow start last season after the departure of Gordon Hayward but turned everything around and managed the best record in the NBA through the second half of the season. Veteran Center Rudy Gobert leads one of the stoutest defences in the association, whilst second year Guard Donovan Mitchell can take this team to the next level offensively. The Jazz have the talent and depth to easily win 55 games this season, which may very well prove enough for Snyder to take home the award.
Nick Nurse ($12)
After winning Coach of the Year last season, former Raptors Head Coach Dwayne Casey is out, and his assistant Nick Nurse is in. The blockbuster acquisition of Kawhi Leonard makes this a high-profile job that will ensure that Nurse has his work cut out for him. Renowned for his offensive aptitude, Nurse will have excellent players such as Kyle Lowry, Kawhi, Serge Ibaka and Jonas Valanciunas at his disposal. I expect this deep and talented Raptors team to push for 60 wins and the #1 seed out East, which will make Nurse a very strong candidate.
Steve Kerr ($10)
The 2016 Coach of the Year and current Head Coach of the best team in the NBA, it’s tough to overlook Steve Kerr for this award. Whilst some of his rotations and in-game decisions can be questioned at times, Kerr knows exactly how to guide his team through the grind of the NBA season. With by far the most talented roster in the NBA, a healthy Golden State could breeze to the #1 seed by playing to even 85% of their peak. Should they have the top record in the association for the 4th time in the past 5 years, $10 for Kerr represents immense value.
Mike Budenholzer ($12)
2015 Coach of the Year Mike Budenholzer heads into the 2018/19 season reinvigorated after joining the Milwaukee Bucks. The general consensus was that the Bucks underachieved last season, managing only 44 wins and a first round playoff exit with a very talented roster. Replacing the often-maligned Jason Kidd, I expect an offensive minded coach like Budenholzer to unleash Star Forward Giannis Antetokounmpo and significantly upgrade the Bucks offense. Given the relative lack of competition out East, 50 wins and a top 4 seed is very attainable for this Bucks squad. Should this occur, I expect Giannis and Budenholzer to get the lion’s share of the credit, meaning that $12 for Coach of the Year is excellent value.
Gregg Popovich ($18)
It wouldn’t be a proper Coach of the Year article without including the 3-time award winner Gregg Popovich. Widely regarded as the best Head Coach in the NBA, Pop has brought home 5 championships for the Spurs and consistently outperformed his teams’ perceived talent level. This was evidenced last season as he guided the Kawhi-Leonard less Spurs to 47 wins and a playoff appearance. Buoyed by the addition of All-Star Shooting Guard DeMar DeRozan, many are expecting the Spurs to be competitive out West this season. If the Spurs can match last season’s efforts and there aren’t any real standouts, Pop has a good chance to win and represents strong value at $18.
Best Bet: Brad Stephens at $2.50
It’s hard to look past the favourite Brad Stephens to win Coach of the Year. He’s had an immensely successful past five seasons with the Celtics and has been a very strong contender for the award in recent years. Given the depth and talent at his disposal, I’m expecting a very strong season from the Celtics that should eclipse 60 wins. Given how close he has come in recent seasons, I’d also expect Stephens to receive it as a ‘legacy award’ in the event that it’s close between him and another coach.
Value Bet: Nick Nurse at $12
To complement my Kawhi Leonard for MVP bet, I believe that Nick Nurse represents immense value for Coach of the Year at a price of $12. If the Raptors manage to edge out the Celtics again for #1 spot in the East and play some attractive basketball in the process, I expect Nurse to receive a lot of recognition. Given the relatively weak competition in the Eastern Conference, it definitely isn’t unrealistic for the Raptors to eclipse 60 wins and have home court advantage throughout the playoffs. I believe Nurse should be in the $8-$9 range and as such $12 represents excellent value for him to take home the award.