AFL Round 23 Preview

AFL Round 23 Preview

We’ve reached the final week of the AFL regular season and the race to the finals is still well and truly alive.

The action is underway at the Adelaide Oval tonight when Port host Essendon in a crucial tie. A win for Port would place them into the top eight, at least for the evening, however the Cats are offered a great opportunity to confirm their position when they host the lowly Suns on Saturday.

The Dees and Giants will square off at the G on Sunday afternoon and while both clubs have all but confirmed their positions in the finals already, it should be a terrific contest.

Port Adelaide vs Essendon
Essendon to Win ($2.40)

The last round of the regular season kicks off at the Adelaide Oval as the Power play host to the Dons in what’s likely to be the final game for both sides in 2018.

A win for Port Adelaide will move them into the top eight if only momentarily, to remain in finals contention they’ll need the Gold Coast Suns to pull off a minor miracle by upsetting the Cats in Geelong.  Port come into this match following a heavy defeat to title contenders Collingwood. The Power were in the contest until the final term when the Pies kicked away to ultimately go down by eight goals.

Essendon’s finals hopes died last week going down to the reigning premiers despite a valiant fourth quarter fightback. The Dons will be looking to see off Brendon Goddard with a win as the club decided against offering the veteran a contract extension. Devon Smith had a stand out performance for the Dons racking up 28 touches, 5 tackles and a goal, while David Zaharakis also looked the goods finding the ball 30 times on the night.

The Dons will have both the physical and mental edge over the Power coming into this contest and should finish their season on a high.

Geelong vs Gold Coast
Geelong 100+ ($3.50)

The action or lack thereof kicks off on Saturday when the Suns head to the cattery to take on Geelong.

The Suns have an opportunity to impact the top eight with a win, giving their forgettable 2018 season some sort of meaning. The Gold coast side has travelled to Geelong four times in their history and have lost on each occasion by an average of 83 points. Last round the Suns fell to the Lions in a heated QClash where tempers threatened to boil over. Alex Sexton shouldered the workload up front booting four of his sides goals, while Touk Miller did a job on Brisbane’s captain Dayne Zorko keeping the gun onballer to just 17 touches.

Following their record-breaking victory against the Dockers last round, the Cats will be looking to carry their devastating form into the finals with another percentage boosting thumping against the Suns. Tim Kelly had a coming of age game, thriving in the hazardous conditions earing 26 touches and kicking three goals, while Tom Hawkins kept himself in contention for the 2018 Coleman medal kicking a bag of six majors.

I recommend Suns fans to keep their televisions turned off with another cattery blood bath imminent.

Richmond vs Western Bulldogs
Richmond at the Line (-41.5)

The Tigers have the minor premiership wrapped up and will be looking to carry momentum into their finals campaign with a win over the Doggies at the G.

The Bulldogs are searching for their forth win on the trot after ending the Roos’ finals hopes and ensuring Carlton finish with the Wooden spoon in their past two contests. Marcus Bontempelli has been at the centre of the Doggies purple patch, most recently picking up 36 possessions against the Blues.

The Tigers will be looking to field a strong side as they rehearse for the first week of finals, the reigning premiers will welcome back their captain Trent Cotchin after he sat out the Dons game with general soreness. Dustin Martin was at his damaging best during the Tigers eight-point victory over the Bombers, collecting 26 touches, 10 marks and kicking four goals. Josh Caddy and Jack Riewoldt dominated the forward 50 kicking four and two goals respectively.

The Doggies have been in fine form of late, but they will come against a formidable Richmond outfit looking for their 21st straight victory at the G.

Fremantle vs Collingwood
Collingwood 40+ ($2.20)

The Pies fly west to take on the Dockers in a bid to secure a percentage boosting win and a top two finish.

The Dockers slump into this contest with their tails between their legs following a sickening hiding at the hands of Geelong last round. Ross Lyon’s side suffered the largest defeat in history going down to the Cats by 133 points, after failing to kick a major after the first term. Some say the darkest hour is just before the dawn, unfortunately the dawn seems to be a long way off for the Dockers.

The Pies are currently sitting in third position on the ladder only four points behind the West Coast in second. A percentage boosting win against the Dockers would see Buckley’s side pile the pressure on the Eagles who have the tricky task of facing the Lions in Brisbane. The Pies all but ended Ports finals hopes last round with a convincing 50-point victory at the G. Brody Grundy tightened his claim on All-Australian selection with a commanding 41 hit-outs, 25 disposals and eight tackles.

The Pies should pile on the points out west as they look to swoop on a top two finish.

Sydney vs Hawthorn
Winning Margin -15.5 ($2.40)

The match of the round comes to us from the SCG, where the revitalised Swans play host to their modern day rivals the Hawks with the victor walking away with a spot in the top four.

Following their shock loss to AFL bottom feeders the Suns, Sydney has gone on to win their last four contests against highly rated oppositions in the Dons, Pies, Dees and most recently the Giants. Lance Franklin has been at the forefront of their resurgence kicking 13 goals in his last three appearances placing him third in the race for the Coleman medal. George Hewett will most likely be tasked with keeping Hawks gun Tom Mitchell quiet and will have to do a fine job if the Swans are any chance to get up this weekend.

Hawthorn were lucky to escape with a win last round against an underachieving Saints outfit. Alastair Clarkson’s men scraped home by four point in an uninspiring performance at Etihad. Jack Gunston stared in the forward line picking up four goals, while Jaeger O’Meara did the damage through the middle of the ground gathering 27 touches, five clearances and four tackles.

Historically this contest has always been a tight affair, with both teams finding form at the right end of the season this blockbuster could be decided by the last kick.

Carlton vs Adelaide
Crows at the Line (-38.5)

The Adelaide Crows head to Melbourne to take on the wooden spooners Carlton. Pride will be the only thing on the line with neither side featuring in the finals this season.

If the Blues lose again this round they will finish the season with their lowest win tally (2) since 1901. Carlton went down to the Doggies last round in a low scoring affair, as the Bontempelli inspired side broke away in the final term to take the game 66-49. Carltons scoring woes date back to round 11 2016 which was the last time they kicked at least 100 points in a match, it’s been 57 games since then and the Blues have shown little sign of improvement.

After finishing as minor premiers in the 2017 season the Crows have had a year to forget. The Adelaide outfit were involved in a questionable preseason and as a result looked underdone both physically and mentally. The Crows will be without under fire captain Tex Walker who is serving a suspension for a sling tackle. Matt Crouch is in career high form, Adelaide’s ball magnet amassed 46 possessions last week against the Roos breaking the AFL record for most handballs in a game at 35!

Last time these two sides clashed Mitch McGovern and Josh Jenkins had a field day in the Crows forward line and will look to cash in again at the expense of the inexperienced Blues.

Brisbane vs West Coast
Brisbane to Win ($2.40)

West Coast Eagles head east to take on the Brisbane Lions with their top two position on the line.

The Eagles are currently sitting in second place on the ladder four points clear of Collingwood, Hawthorn and Sydney. A lose to the Lion’s would hand the Pies and the Hawks an opportunity to swoop on their cherished top two spot allowing two home finals. The Eagles have had to make do without stars Josh Kennedy, Nic Naitanui and Andrew Gaff, relying on the defensive prowess of Jeremy McGovern and Shannon Hurn to grind out tight matches.

Despite sitting in 15th position on the AFL ladder the Lions have looked competitive all year and have been unlucky not to be higher up, losing five games by six points or less. Dayne Beams and Dayne Zorko have been prolific for the young Lions through the middle of the ground, Beams won the Marcus Ashcroft Medal for best on ground in the QClash gathering 38 possession and nine clearances.

The young Lions have been building all year and have been provided the perfect opportunity to leave their mark on the comp when they line up against the wounded Eagles.

Melbourne vs GWS
Melbourne 1-24 ($3.25)

The Dees play host to the Giants in a game which will prove pivotal to each sides chance of hosting a home final in two weeks’ time.

The Giants limp into this contest off the back of a loss to their cross-town rivals the Swans. GWS were up by 15 at the half time break but struggled to find the ball in the second with the Swans kicking away to a 20-point victory off the back of five goals from Buddy Franklin. Hotly sort after on baller Dylan Shiel put in a decent shift racking up 33 possessions, while Tim Taranto and Callan Ward found the pill 31 and 27 time respectively.

The Dees secure their first finals appearance since 2006 in a convincing win in Perth last round against the Eagles. Max Gawn dominated Scott Lycett in the ruck winning 39 hit-outs and gathering 20 disposals. Jake Melksham stood up in the absence of Jesse Hogan kicking four goals on his return from injury.

The Demons will have their tails up after securing their first victory over a fellow top eight last round and should add another to their tally when they take on the depleted Giants.

St Kilda vs North Melbourne
St Kilda to Win ($3.45)

The finals game of the round holds no relevance to the rest of the comp as both the Saints and the Roos will not compete in this season’s finals.

The Saints showed encouraging signs of improvement last round when they narrowly went down to a top four side in the Hawks by four points. Seb Ross continued his purple patch of form picking up 34 disposals through the middle of the ground, while Jack Steele did a job on Brownlow favourite Tom Mitchell limiting the ball magnet to 31 touches. Jack Lonies slotted a career best four goals, three of which came during the third quarter putting his side within striking distance at the final term.

North Melbourne’s dreams of playing finals were severely damaged a fortnight back when they suffered a surprise defeat at the hand of the Doggies then ultimately killed off last round against the Crows. Trent Dumont and Shaun Higgins dug in through the middle of the ground collecting 33 and 29 possessions respectively, while retiring key forward Jarrad Waite kick a handy three goals.

The Roos will be deflated after coming so close to playing finals footy and may not be mentally up to the challenge of overcoming a hungry Saints outfit.