The season’s first Group 1 in Melbourne headlines Memsie Stakes Day at Caulfield and we are set for a quality card.
Vega Magic, Kementari and Happy Clapper headline the outstanding Memsie Stakes field, but there is winning potential across the board and a horse like early Caulfield Cup favourite Kings Will Dream cannot be discounted.
A smart field of stayers will step out in the first at 12:30pm local time, while the Memsie Stakes is set to be run and won at 4:10pm.
Eight talented stayers will step out in the first on Memsie Stakes Day but Jaameh has opened the clear and justifiable $2.15 favourite. Jaameh debuted in Australia for a comfortable win over 2000m at Caulfield in April and while he failed to fire second-up, he responded with a dominant win over 2510m last time out. He’s drawn and weighted ideally and will be ridden by in-form hoop Regan Bayliss.
Macedon Lodge stayer Midterm ($20) failed to fire first-up, but he’ll be better for the run and will appreciate the increase in trip. He will need to improve noticeably on all of his Australian runs to date to figure here, but he does look a touch of overs in this small field.
A capacity field has been taken for Race 2 and there is a case to be made for several runners.
I’m leaning towards the Jarrod McLean-trained Bryan ($13) at his current price and he is beginning to string together a nice record. The son of Monde Bleu returned to winning form over 1200m at Donald two runs back before making a successful step up in class when a smart winner over 1100m at Caulfield, despite jumping at odds of $26.
Holbein is the $4.20 favourite at the time of publish and he has proven first-up form, having bolted in at the Yarra Valley last time in.
I will be having a small each-way bet on Bryan at his current price, but without a lot of confidence and I wouldn’t want him a lot shorter than he already is.
Twelve horses remain in the field for the third following the early scratching of Embecee Lil and it is the first opportunity that we’ll get to see a few exciting Spring Carnival prospects this season.
Samovare ($4.70) has continued to receive steady support in betting and remains the sole occupant of the top line. The Savabeel mare tends to reach her best at longer trips than this, but she is capable of a big run fresh and can be fighting out the finish of this race on class alone.
Arties Dreamwinner will carry winning form into this race and will have conditions to suit again. The Artie Schiller mare was dominant to the line to beat a decent field by nearly four lengths at Morphettville last time out and while this is a step up in class, she has a fitness edge over many of her major rivals.
The field for Race 4 is filled with black type talent and there is a case to be made for several runners.
There is a number of resuming stayers in this race and a horse like Night’s Watch ($2.15) probably won’t be offered a better opportunity to win on a Saturday. The Redwood gelding looked home for all money over a mile at Flemington last time, but just couldn’t make up the ground on Another Coldie. He is too short for mine, given that performance and I am happy to take him on again this weekend.
Muraaqeb ($7) will take plenty of benefit into his second-up run and will carry only 54kgs. The Snitzel entire took up the running in the Listed Regal Roller Stakes (1200m) first-up and clearly required the run, but he’ll strip fitter and will enjoy the increase in trip. Jamie Kah will take the ride and will give them something to chase.
This year’s edition of the Heatherlie Stakes looks wide open from a betting perspective and there is a case to be made for more than half the field. Some of the carnival’s most exciting stayers will step out in this field including Big Duke ($17) and Ventura Storm ($13).
Macedon Lodge stayer Homesman is a proven first-up performer and I am confident that he can go close again here. The War Front gelding debuted for a tough win in the Listed Mornington Cup Prelude (2000m) in autumn before a credible run for sixth in the Group 1 Australian Cup (2000m).
This year’s McNeil Stakes is packed with talent and several three-year-olds have claims on finding their way into the winner’s stall.
Tony Nicconi ($4.20) has posted two wins from as many starts and is a fitting occupant of the top line of betting. The Nicconi colt held on to win the Group 3 Vain Stakes (1100m) a fortnight ago but this is another step up in quality and it will be a legitimate test of his ability.
Aylmerton ($6) has transferred to the care of Lindsay Park for his Spring Carnival campaign and David Hayes has been impressed with the colt’s ability. The Siyouni colt beat a talented field to the line in the Group 2 Todman Stakes (1200m) at his second career start in autumn and will have conditions to suit here.
Group 1 winner Seabrook ($5) will resume and can fight out the finish on class alone. She continued to improve through her two-year-old season, ultimately resulting to her win in the Group 1 Champagne Stakes (1600m) and she has trialled well leading into this race.
The field for this year’s Memsie Stakes is dripping with talent but it really does look like the defending champion’s to lose. Vega Magic progressed to a close-up second in The Everest after winning this race in 2017 and he has returned to the track in slick form again this time after absolutely dominating the Group 3 Bletchingly Stakes (1200m) from an on-pace position last time. He’s drawn well in the middle of the field and he’ll be extremely difficult to run down.
Cult hero Happy Clapper ($5) will resume and has already received plenty of attention in Memsie Stakes betting. The Teofilo gelding added wins in the Group 1 Canterbury Stakes (1300m) and Group 1 Doncaster Mile (1600m) to his mantle in autumn and looms as the biggest danger to Vega Magic.
Kementari ($4.40) will step out third-up and will be rock-hard fit for this assignment. The son of Lonhro finished second in the Group 2 Missile Stakes (1200m) first-up before a fair effort for fourth behind Winx two weeks ago.
The Heath has drawn an exceptional field this year that is almost as good as that of the Group 1 Memsie.
Three-time Group 1 winner Santa Ana Lane ($8.50) will launch his Everest campaign in this race and should harbour some residual fitness from his winter campaign. The Lope De Vega gelding won both the Group 1 The Goodwood (1200m) and Group 1 Stradbroke Handicap (1350m) at his two most-recent appearances and can fight out the finish of this race.
Brave Smash ($6.50) will resume and will be given every opportunity from the rails draw. The Tosen Phantom entire won the Group 1 Futurity Stakes (1400m) in autumn and finished a close second in the Group 1 Newmarket Handicap (1200m) most notably.
Voodoo Lad ($3.40) has a fitness edge and should be fighting out the finish again, while there is a case to be made for Rich Charm ($13), First Among Equals ($26) and Fuhryk ($16), all resuming.
A capacity field of mares will step out in this year’s Cockram Stakes and the early scratching of Demerara means that quality mare Leather’N’lace has gained a start.
Jamaican Rain is yet to taste anything but success through three starts this time and will be extremely difficult to beat again. The Manhattan Rain mare has been freshened since her last start win in the Listed Glasshouse Handicap (1400m) and a bit of cut in the track would not go astray.
Group 1 winner Catchy ($5) is always a threat and she has plenty of options here from the rails draw. The Fastnet Rock mare flew home to finish third in the Group 1 William Reid Stakes (1200m) and won the Group 2 Arrowfield Stakes (1200m) most notably in autumn.
I Am Excited ($4.40) found career-best form earlier this year and will be hard to beat first-up here. the Snitzel mare won twice at Listed level before a couple of smart runs at Group 2 company, both heralding third placings.