AFL Round 16 Preview

AFL Round 16 Preview

We are set for a full round of action in the AFL this weekend and a host of exciting fixtures from a spectator’s and betting perspective.

The Swans and Cats square off in the first game of the round on Thursday night, before the Tigers and Crows renew their Grand Final rivalry at the MCG on Friday. Saturday’s Port Adelaide vs St Kilda game is set to be closer than betting suggests, while the game of the round will take place between old foes the Pies and Bombers on Sunday afternoon/

Round 16 of the AFL draws to a close in the nation’s west when the out-of-form Eagles attempt to contain the Giants.

Sydney Swans vs Geelong Cats
Swans 1-39 ($2.15)

Round 16 gets underway on Thursday night with the Swans hosting the Cats at the SCG.

Both Sydney and Geelong will head into this fixture off the back of a defeat, with the Swans well accounted for by the reigning premiers and the Cats surprised by a battling Dogs outfit.

Another loss for Geelong will most likely see them slip outside of the hotly contest top eight, while the Swans are at risk of losing their spot in the top four to the inform Port.

The Swans have fared well during this fixture recently and have won four of the last five clashes with the Cats; the latest of which in Round 6. The Cat’s big three of Dangerfield, Selwood and Ablett all racked up over 30 possessions last week but will need to enlist the help of the greater squad if they stand any chance here.

Sydney have the artillery to match it with Geelong through the middle of the ground and with the scoring prowess of Buddy up front, they should sneak home in a close contest.

Richmond Tigers vs Adelaide Crows
Tigers 25+ ($1.65)

Friday night footy takes us to the MCG for a replay of the 2017 decider.

The Tigers are currently sitting pretty on top of the table and will be brimming with confidence following a comprehensive victory over the Swans last weekend. In contrast, the Crows have fallen off the perch since the first weekend of October.

Off the back of a mid-season slump, Adelaide are currently sitting in 11th place and have lost four of their last five fixtures. Captain Taylor Walker led from the front last weekend, however and steered his side to a season-saving victory against the Eagles. Walker booted three second half goals and finished the game with 20 disposals. Adelaide also welcomed back Rory Sloane from an extended injury layoff and the star midfielder only managed 15 disposals in his first match back – expect him to have a greater impact against the Tigers Friday night.

After losing to the Crows back in Round 2 the Tigers have gone from strength to strength. Recent victories over the Cats and the Swans have solidified their position as 2018 flag favourites. Despite losing Reece Conca to a dislocated ankle last week, Richmond’s squad looks fresh and raring to go.

The Tigers haven’t suffered defeat at the MCG since round 13 last year; a record that looks to be extended on Friday night.

Brisbane Lions vs Carlton Blues
Lions 1-24 ($3.20)

First-up on Saturday we’re heading to the Gabba for the battle of the wooden spoon.

The Lions surprised the majority of punters last week when the put on a clinic against the Dockers in Perth and will be looking to post back-to-back victories for the first time this year. Despite sitting second last on the ladder, the Lions have remained competitive throughout the season and have averaged 79 points a game, versus Carlton’s competition-low of 63.

The Blues can take confidence from their last two outings after stringing together a couple of respectable performances against quality opposition. Charlie Curnow has been particularly impressive of late, picking up best on ground against the Power after guiding home four goals and taking a few spectacular grabs.

Buoyed by their season’s best performance against the Dockers, the Lions should move two wins clear of the Blues in overall standings.

 

Port Adelaide vs St Kilda
Port Adelaide 1-39 ($2.25)

After taking a brief look at the 2018 AFL ladder anyone would be excused for expecting this clash to be a boil over. Fortunately for the neutral supporters, that should be far from the case.

The Saints fly into this round off the back of two spectacular 2-point victories against the Suns at Metricon and the Dees at the G. Last week young gun Jack Billings had a stand-out performance, picking up 24 disposals & nine inside 50s, while Carlisle cleaned up at the other end of the park with 22 disposals to go with nine marks.

Port will be looking to go five-straight and force their way into the top four this weekend. The Power had no trouble putting away an inspired Blues side last week, with Westhoff (19 disposals, two goals) and Wingard (24 disposals, two goals) leading from the front. Port possess a clear advantage over the Saints through the middle of the ground, with the big bodies of Wines, Powell-Pepper and Rockliff leading the comp for clearances. The Saints are sitting last in the comp in the same area of the pitch.

The Power have won the last six meetings between these two clubs since 2011 and should comfortably stretch their streak to seven this weekend.

Western Bulldogs vs Hawthorn Hawks
Hawthorn 1-24 ($3.20)

This encounter looms as a must win for the hot-and-cold Hawks, who are sitting just outside of the eight on percentage. With contrasting game styles and a finals spot on the line we are set for an exciting contest at the Etihad.

The Doggies bound into this clash after pulling off one of the biggest upsets of the season against the Cats. They simply weren’t given a chance by most pundits and were expected to lose their 6th game on the trot. Toby McLean, Luke Dahlhaus and Josh Dunkley all picked up over 25 possessions for the Dogs in a night where the whole squad came to play.

The Hawks played within themselves last round as they fell to fellow top eight hopefuls the Giants. Clarkson’s boys were absolutely dominated through the middle of the ground losing out 28-51 in clearances, while only managing a staggering 53 less contested possessions than their hungrier opponents. Tom Mitchell was the shining light once again for the Hawks, racking up a half century worth of disposals and looks to have one hand on the Brownlow medal already.

Hawthorn has dominated this fixture in recent memory and should be able to bring the high-flying Dogs crashing back down to Earth.

Melbourne Demons vs Fremantle Dockers
Melbourne 40+ ($1.90)

We head North to Darwin for the Saturday night fixture between the Dees and the Dockers, with both sides looking to bounce back from defeat.

Melbourne will be desperate to halt their slide down the ladder after losing three-consecutive matches. The Dees have come into criticism over their ability to perform against other top 8 sides lately, with their only victory over a top 10 team coming back in Round 3 against the Kangaroos. Regardless, the Dees have been handed a very favourable draw by the AFL and should be able to sneak into the finals off the back of their high scoring brand of footy.

Just as the Dockers looked to be breathing life their season, they have copped a couple of very costly injury blows; big man Aaron Sandilands is out with a calf strain and is joined on the sideline by club captain and former Brownlow medallist Nat Fyfe, who is set to miss up to five weeks after pulling his hammy against the Lions. The Dockers will be reliant on their young stars Adam Cerra and Andrew Brayshaw to provide a much-needed spark through the middle of the ground.

With Sandilands out and Gawn in All-Australian form the Dees should dominate the hit outs and get the ball moving forward.

North Melbourne vs Gold Coast Suns
Under 178.5 Points ($1.90)

North Melbourne will play host to the Gold Coast Suns at the Etihad Stadium and will look to secure a percentage-boosting win and a spot in the top eight.

The Suns managed to defeat the Roos in the opening round of the season, although the game in question was on a flooded track up in Cairns. Since that round, the Gold Coast side have only managed victories against Carlton and the Lions and are currently on a nine-game losing streak. Ultimately, the Suns have looked like a side out of their depth in the AFL and have only been scoring 61 points on average per game.

The Roos are currently sitting just outside the eight on scoring percentage and Sunday’s fixture looms as a golden opportunity to put pressure on those sides hovering just above them. Colman Medal leader Ben Brown will be looking to cash in against the leaky Suns defence after missing out in the boggy first round clash.

The Roos should get up comfortably at home and it really is only a question of by how much.

Essendon vs Collingwood
Essendon to Win ($2.15)

We head to the G on Sunday for the match of the round between arch rivals Collingwood and Essendon.

The Dons fly into this fixture off the back of an attacking masterclass against North Melbourne last round. In what many have described as the game of the year, the Bombers and Roos traded blows in an end-to-end and high scoring affair. Orazio Fantasia and McKernan booted four goals apiece and the Package chimed in with three of his own. Zach Merrett and Captain Dyson Heppell controlled the middle of the park with 32 and 34 disposals respectively.

Collingwood have surged their way into second place with six wins on the trot and look like the Tigers’ biggest threat in the race to the flag. The Pies dynamic forward line have been too much handle for most sides this season, with the recently re-signed Jordan De Goey going from strength to strength. The Dons will have their hands full nullifying Mason Cox, after the big American ran riot during their ANZAC day clash.

Don’t let their ladder positions fool you – this is an outing between two of the in-form teams of the entire competition. Playing full of confidence and with their finals position on the line, the Dons have the fire power to pull off an upset at the G.

West Coast Eagles vs GWS Giants
Giants to Win ($2.30)

Round 16 draws to a close on Sunday afternoon when the Eagles welcome the Giants to Perth Stadium.

This is a clash between two sides heading in opposite directions. The Eagles have dropped from 1st to 3rd on the ladder after successive losses, while the Giants have moved up to 6th following a perfect month of four-consecutive victories.

The Eagles’ poor form can be directly linked to the loss of the three main scoring avenues of Jack Darling, Josh Kennedy and Mark LeCras; all of whom are missing through injury. The impact can be seen clearly on the score board, with the West Aussies averaging over 100 points per game prior to the bye compared with a miserable 62 points in their last three fixtures.

The Giants put on a show against the Hawks at home last round, easily accounting for the Melbourne side through the middle of the ground. They were far superior in both clearances and contested possessions – an area which they can exploit against the frail Eagles.

The Giants should have too much run through the centre of the ground for the Eagles to control. Expect to see the West Coast outfit sitting outside the top four for the first time since the beginning of the season.