Nine races will be run and won at Rosehill Gardens on Winter Classic Day and there is plenty of value to be taken in betting. Its been a fine week in Sydney and the Rosehill Gardens track is set to be rated in the ‘Good’ range, while the rail will remain in the true position around the entire course. The action on 2018 Winter Classic Day will get underway when a smart field of two-year-olds step out at 11:45am local time, while the feature race is set to jump at 3:20pm.
A decent field of juveniles will step out in the first and there is a case to be made for nearly every one. Godolphin filly Laburnum ($3.10) has shown above average ability throughout her short racing career and will be rock-hard fit for her third-up assignment here. Laburnum trialled well in the lead-up to her this campaign but ran into good horse Smart Melody at Canterbury first-up and finished second. She hit the line well for third in her return to Saturday grade last time out and looks like she’ll be suited to the step up in trip. This is a tough race to analyse from a betting perspective and I will be happy to have a small bet on the nose of Laburnum, but I wouldn’t want her a lot shorter than she’s currently displaying.
A reasonably open benchmark 73 for three-year-olds will run Race 2 but at the time of publish, the Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott-trained Falcon Island is the $2.80 race favourite. Falcon Island has continued to improve with racing this time and finished second over at mile at Hawkesbury two starts back before returning to the winner’s stall at Wyong last time. This is a step up in class and he’ll need to improve again. A horse that appeals at his current price is the Chris Waller-trained The Macallan ($5), who will take plenty of benefit into his second run in Australia. Formerly saddled by Tony Pike in New Zealand, the Rock ‘N’ Pop gelding worked home well to finish third over 1800m at Rosehill a fortnight ago and will be tough to hold out with the added distance.
A few early scratchings to the field of this week’s Highway Plate has blown the race wide open from a betting perspective, but the John Bateman-trained Nicconita has been backed into clear $2.15 favouritism. Nicconita is yet to finish worse than second in five starts this time and has been performing well in these Highway races. The slight increase in trip will suit and he’ll be tough to hold out. Pierino ($7.50) has also been racing extremely well this time and looks the value in the field. The three-year-old won each of his first two starts this time before finishing second behind Melberra Star over 1435m last time out. Danny Williams has an excellent record in these Highway races and Pierino will be ready to peak here.
Chris Waller will saddle seven of the thirteen horses in Race 4 and is therefore probably should be winning, but classy import Raqeeq ($4.20) looks to be his best chance. The son of Champs Elysees has only made two appearances in Australia but clearly has above-average ability; running fifth over 1500m before savaging the line for second at 2000m a fortnight ago. Kerrin McEvoy can find a position closer to the pace from gate 3 and with only 53kgs, the horse will be extremely hard to hold out.
A nice field will step out for this sprint and it will be the first opportunity we’ll get to see a few exciting Spring Carnival prospects. Condor Heroes ($4.20) has been a bit of an enigma since his made his competitive debut, but he has immense talent and if he puts it all together, should be winning this race. The Not A Single Doubt colt has only had four starts, winning one and placing in two and he has trialled well in the lead-up to this campaign. James McDonald is another bonus and he’s drawn to get a peach run from gate 6. There’s a number of in-form horses set to contest this race and a case to be made for all of Niccolance ($6.50), Tip Tip ($6.50), Stephan ($9.50) and on class, the resuming Piracy ($5).
This is another wide open race in betting and plenty of winning chances, but I’m leaning towards the Chris Waller-trained Paret ($4.40) at his current price. Paret has been typically tough to trust from a betting perspective, but he returned to the races with a nice performance for third over 1200m here a fortnight ago and will take plenty of improvement into more-ideal conditions. He can take a sit just behind the pace from a central draw and the booking of Hugh Bowman for the ride also obviously has its advantages. I’ll be taking Paret on the nose at his current quote, but without a great deal of confidence.
The feature race has drawn a number of exciting Spring Carnival prospects and there’s plenty of value to be taken in betting, as a result. Invinzabeel has received the most attention in early Winter Challenge betting and has firmed into $4.50 favouritism, after opening at $6. The I Am Invincible gelding has placed in each of his three most-recent starts, including a close-up second behind Dreamforce in the Listed Winter Stakes last time out and he will be tough to beat again. Special Missile has returned to racing in excellent form this time and looks over the odds at his current $7 quote. The Smart Missile has finished third at his two most-recent appearances, including the Winter Stakes last time out and will be given every opportunity to take up the running from barrier 2 on Saturday. He’ll be ridden by in-form hoop Rachel King and will carry only 53kgs.
Star Of Monsoon ($4) returned to the races for a smart win at this track and distance and fortnight ago and will be tough to beat in Race 8 on Winter Challenge Day. A strong and consistent performer throughout his entire racing career to date, the son of Lonhro failed to miss a place last time in and he’s drawn well again this weekend, with favourable conditions. There is a case to be made for several horses but I am happy to take the price currently on offer for Star Of Monsoon.
The last race on Winter Challenge Day stands as the most open from a betting perspective and at the time of publish, we are looking at $7 the field. Istria ($14) has not been seen at the races since November, but she is a strong and consistent performer and certainly not out of her depth in this field, first-up. The daughter of Reset failed to finish outside the places through five starts last time in and has great fresh form. Rachel King should be able to find a position slightly better than midfield from a central draw and with even luck, can be right in the finish.