There’s no Group 1 racing in Queensland this weekend but we are set for an exciting card on the Sunshine Coast on Saturday, headlined by the PJ O’Shea Stakes and the Moreton Cup.
We are in the thick of the Winter Carnival action and seven black type races have drawn plenty of local and intestate talent, ultimately offering punters plenty of value from a betting perspective.
There’s been plenty of rain around the Sunshine Coast area this week and we look likely-to-be racing on a heavy track on Saturday, while the rail will remain in the true position around the entire course.
Two early scratchings has left thirteen horses in contention for Race 1 on Moreton Cup Day, including the Peter & Paul Snowden-trained Spending To Win ($2). Spending To Win has been a strong and consistent performer this time and is yet to miss a place in seven starts since January. He has finished second in the Listed Hawkesbury Gold Rush and third in the Listed Ortensia Stakes at his two most-recent appearances and faces a big step back in class into this field. He is clearly the horse to beat.
A capacity field will step out in Race 2 and there is a case to be made for a few horses towards the top of betting.
The Kris Lees-trained Envy Of All ($4.50) will have the notable advantage of Jeff Lloyd in the saddle and she’ll take plenty of improvement from a credible first-up run for fourth in the Listed Denise’s Joy Stakes at Scone. The Your Song filly has only missed a place a couple of times through eight career starts and at her best, will be hard to beat in this company.
Bring It Home Pop ($8) has not been seen at the races since December, but he is a proven first-up performer and is worth consideration at each-way odds here. The Rothesay colt has finished second twice and won once at three first-up tilts previously and is drawn to get a gun run from barrier 4.
The first black type race on Moreton Cup Day will see just ten two-year-olds step out for The Phoenix.
This is another race in which Peter & Paul Snowden will be offered an extremely good chance of winning with Sokudo ($3.30). Sokudo failed to fire second-up in the Listed China Horse Club Mile at Randwick in April, but was a dominant winner at Newcastle to break his maiden last time out and looks to have found an ideal black type target on Saturday. Corey Brown can find a good position in transit from an inside draw and he’ll be extremely hard to beat.
The locally-trained Yamazaki ($8) absolutely spanked a field at Ipswich last week and while this is clearly a step up in class, she looks a filly with plenty of potential and she can find herself right in the finish of The Phoenix. A step up in trip looks ideal and Jeff Lloyd is also a bonus.
A decent field of two-year-old sprinters will step out for the Oxlade Stakes, but it really does look like Granny Red Shoes’ race to lose. Granny Red Shoes ($4) resumed for a dominant win over 1000 on the Sunshine Coast to break her maiden in April, before running a smart second behind Eawase in the Listed Bill Carter Stakes a fortnight ago. There doesn’t look-to-be anything of Eawase’s quality in this field and Granny Red Shoes won’t be offered a better shot at black type than she’ll get here.
Pennino ($8) failed to fire in the Group 2 Champagne Classic last time out, but she won three on the trot prior to that and faces an obvious step back in class into this field. The Easy Rocking filly is most importantly proven on the heavy going, but a wide barrier here is a genuine concern.
The first of two Group 2 feature races has drawn nine quality stayers, but multiple Group 1 winner Egg Tart is clearly the mare to beat. Egg Tart ($1.80 FAT ODDS) won both the Group 1 Australasian Oaks and the Queensland Oaks (over this trip) in 2017 and she has been excellent since arriving north of the border this time; finishing fifth in the Group 2 Hollindale Stakes and a close second in the Group 1 Doomben Cup most-recently. A step up in trip is ideal and she has a class edge over all of her rivals in this race.
Gallic Chieftain failed to fire at Doomben last week but forgetting that run, he’s been racing well this time and looms as Egg Tart’s main danger. The Tamayuz entire posted consecutive wins over 2000m at Flemington and in the Listed Warrnambool Cup leading into last weekend’s flop, but he won’t run into as much traffic here and is drawn ideally in gate 3.
The Lightning Handicap is always an exciting race from a spectator’s perspective and another open edition of the race looks likely to take place on Saturday.
Tumbler ($3.10) has been a strong and consistent performer throughout her lightly-raced career and will be tough to beat first-up here. The Time Thief mare has posted seven wins and a minor through only ten starts in total and has trialled well in the lead-up to this race. Dean Yendall can find a position close to the pace from an inside draw and will be hard to hold out.
Snoopy ($9) will take plenty of benefit from a smart first-up run into this race and looks over the odds at his current price. Formerly saddled by Team Hawkes to moderate success in Sydney and Melbourne, the Lope De Vega gelding worked home well in the Bat Out Of Hell Quality on May 5th and faces no harder a task in the Lightning Handicap.
I’d prefer to see Tumbler go around after such a long lay-off and I’m happy to take the each-way odds on offer for Snoopy.
Ten sprinters remain in the field for the Moreton Cup and there is a case to be made for nearly every runner.
The Darren Weir-trained Handsome Thief has been a slight drifter in betting but remains $4 favourite at the time of publish. The Shamardal gelding has produced a number of excellent performances this time and beat a classy field to the line in the Listed Wangoom Handicap on May 2nd before a credible run for seventh in the Group 1 The Goodwood last time out. On those runs, he’ll be extremely tough to beat on Saturday.
Calanda ($4.60) has been an outstanding performer in races similar to this one previously and looks ready to go after trialling well. The Snitzel gelding won the Listed Ramornie Handicap over this trip last winter and ended his most-recent preparation with a smart win in the Listed Takeover Target Stakes, also over this distance. He’s drawn to get a nice run from gate 3 and should be right in the finish.
This Helen Coughlan Stakes field looks one of the most open races on the Moreton Cup card from a betting perspective and at the time of publish, we’re looking at $6 the field.
A number of quality fillies and mares have drawn out wide, but Conchita ($21) should be able to navigate to a position on pace from gate 3 with ease and will give them something to chase. The Uncle Mo mare is faced with her best chance of some black type to date in this race and she’ll take in winning form after a good run at Canterbury in early May.
I am happy to have a small each-way bet on Conchita at her current price, but without a whole lot of confidence.
This final race of the day is also wide open from a betting perspective and there is a case to be made for more than half the field.
Leaning towards Ulmann ($6.50) at his current price – he’s steadily built to the task through two starts this time in and should prove tough to beat under the conditions of this race. Ulmann is a multiple black type winner and with Dean Yendall in the saddle on Saturday, he can stalk the pace before calling on his smart turn of foot.