Doomben Cup Day is one of the most highly-anticipated cards of the Brisbane Winter Carnival and we are set for an outstanding day of racing north of the border on Saturday.
Five races on Doomben Cup Day have black type status, but all nine have drawn quality fields and there is plenty of value to be taken from a betting perspective.
The rail will be out two metres around the entire course on Doomben Cup Day and a fine week in the greater Brisbane metropolitan area has led to a ‘Good’ track.
Several horses have already been scratched from the field of Race 1 on Doomben Cup Day and it is one of the most open races on the card from a betting perspective.
Tan Tat Diamond returned to winning form first-up and is the $6 favourite at the time of publish. The Fastnet Rock gelding was unwanted in betting and jumped a $21 shot, but he was simply too good for his rivals and won the 1050m race at Doomben by two lengths. He’ll take improvement into this race and will be tough to beat.
At his best, Grunderzeit is more than up to the class of this race, but he would have to improve noticeably off a flat run at the Gold Coast a fortnight ago. The former Godolphin galloper ran second in his first start for Stuart Kendrick and should be nearing peak fitness.
Several quality gallopers will step out in Race 2, but it looks like Japanese import A Shin Rook’s to lose. A Shin Rook ($3.10) was a strong and consistent performer in his homeland before his purchase and transfer to the care of Anthony Freedman, and the Heart’s Cry entire immediately stamped himself as one to watch when he secured a three-length win first-up at the Sunshine Coast three weeks ago. He’s drawn awkwardly, but he looks to have a class edge here and will carry only 54.5kgs.
The enigmatic Cornrow ($31) will take his place in this field and if he produces his best, can surprise at long odds. The Duporth gelding has won at Doomben this time in and finished a close second over 1400m on the Sunshine Coast, but faded late at Tamworth last time out and finished towards the tail of the field.
Race 3 is wide open and there is a case to be made for most of this capacity field finding winning form here.
Let’s Party Marty has returned to racing in strong form this time and is the $4.80 race favourite at the time of publish. The Duporth gelding has strung together three-consecutive second placings, but this is a notable step up in class and he does look like a false favourite.
The horses I would have considered backing have all drawn wide and I am happy to watch them go around.
The first black type race on Doomben Cup Day will see a capacity field of two-year-old fillies step onto the 1200m course.
There is a case to be made for several horses in this field, but interstate raider Sizzling Belle ($4) looks like she’ll be tough to beat. The daughter of Sizzling won each of her first three career starts, before making a competitive transit to black type company when second behind Encryption in Group 3 Black Opal. She was outclassed in the Golden Slipper and blew out the cobwebs in the Group 2 Champagne Classic last weekend, and will be tough to beat upon returning to fillies’ company.
Classy local Shamurt ($6) has shown plenty of potential in her short racing career and could salute at healthy odds here. The Murtajill filly won each of her first two starts, before running on well to finish second behind Mishani Hustler in the Listed Dalrello Stakes last time out.
The field for this year’s Chief De Beers is wide open from a betting perspective and there’s plenty of value to be taken on a number of leading chances.
The Darren Weir-trained Gun Case will have taken plenty of benefit from his first-up run for sixth at Flemington and looks over the odds at his current $11 quote. The War Pass gelding has been a strong and consistent performer throughout his entire racing career so far and is yet to miss a place at the distance of this race. He’ll need some luck from a wide barrier, but he’s got several of his rivals here covered for class.
Fellow interstate raider Nieta ($4.70) has yet to show her best this year, but finds herself in a very winnable race and is the early favourite. Nieta resumed for a credible midfield finish in the Group 3 Maurice McCarten Stakes in March, before running fourth in the Group 3 Star Kingdom Stakes and seventh in the Group 2 Sapphire Stakes; both occasions she appeared to not quite get the 1200m trip. The step back in distance into this race therefore looks ideal and this is also a noticeable step back in class.
I’m happy to play the value in this open field and will be backing Gun Case each way.
A decent field of sprinters will step out in the sixth and at the time of publish, we’re looking at $5 the field.
Chauffeur ($5) has been a quality performer throughout his entire racing career and will be tough to beat in this race. The Snitzel colt will be having his first run for Brad Widdup in this race and has trialled well in the lead-up.
Another horse that is worth consideration at his current quote of Victorian raider Fox Swift ($10). A black type winner in spring, Fox Swift has steadily built to the task this time and was last seen flashing late for second in a 1200m race at Rosehill.
The BRC Sprint always draws a decent field and this year’s edition of the race is no exception.
The Bjorn Baker-trained Test The World ($4) has returned to racing in typically strong form this time and is ready to peak third-up in the BRC Sprint. The daughter of Testa Rossa has missed a place only once through thirteen career starts and has finished second in a Randwick sprint and the Listed Silk Stocking this time in. She has plenty of options from the rails draw and will carry only 54kgs.
A horse at odds that would not look out of place in the winner’s stall is Ulmann ($9). Ulmann has produced a number of outstanding and performances and results throughout his entire racing career and ran on well from the tail of the field to finish sixth in the Listed Wangoom Handicap first-up. He’ll have taken plenty of benefit from the run and has the ability to finish over the top of his rivals in this race.
The feature race has drawn a quality field rich with interstate raiders and there is a case to be made for more than half the group.
Oregon’s Day ($4.70) has already attracted plenty of interest in Doomben Cup betting and she’ll be extremely difficult to beat. The Domesday mare ran second in a number of quality black type races in autumn and arrived in Queensland for a dominant win in the Group 2 Hollindale Stakes a fortnight ago. She can take a forward position in transit from barrier 2 and will give them something to chase.
Japanese imports Ambitious ($4.50) and Satono Rasen ($6) should both appreciate the conditions of this race and can both be right in the finish. Ambitious ran a strong second behind Almandin in the Group 1 The BMW most notably in autumn and while no match for Winx in the Queen Elizabeth, is clearly stepping back in class into this. Satono Rasen is ready to peak third-up and hit the line well for fourth in the Hollindale last time out.
Perennial bridesmaid Tom Melbourne ($9) has claims again and could prove over the odds, while Comin’ Through ($8.50) and Egg Tart ($11) are both live chances.
The final race on the Doomben Cup card has drawn a quality field of fillies and mares, and it looms as a great opportunity to take advantage of great value.
Anatola savaged the line to beat a decent field in the Listed Silk Stocking a fortnight ago and is the $2.30 favourite to win this race, at the time of publish. The More Than Ready mare is yet to taste anything but success this time in and is clearly the horse to beat.
One horse that appeals at double-figure odds is the Henry Dwyer-trained Swampland ($14). Swampland has not been seen at the races in 2018, but she produced a number of outstanding performances and results amongst tougher company than this in spring and looks ready to go after trialling well.
I will be backing Anatola to win, but will also have a small each-way bet on Swampland at her current price.