We are only weeks away from the Brisbane Winter Carnival and 2018 Tails Stakes Day will be the first opportunity to see a number of quality horses set for major targets this season.
Three black type races will be run and won, but all nine races on Tails Stakes Day have drawn quality fields and there is plenty of value to be found from a betting perspective.
The rail will be out 1.5 metres around the entire Doomben course on Tails Stakes Day and at the time of publish, the track is rated a Soft 7.
Only seven horses will step out in in the first and it looks-to-be Xebec’s race to lose. The Mizzen Mast gelding has been racing extremely well this time and has only improved since arriving in Brisbane; finishing a close second in two 2200m races before delivering a smart field a resounding defeat last time out. This race is no harder and with leading hoop Jeff Lloyd in the saddle, Xebec will be hard to beat.
Stable mates Exoteric ($3.10) and Irish Optimism ($6) appear to be the main dangers, while the Kris Lees-trained Slow Pace ($12) is capable of a big performance on his day, but has yet to impress this time in.
Race 2 has drawn a capacity field of sprinters and there is a case to be made for several runners.
At the time of publish, Whycatchim is the $5 favourite, but will require plenty of luck after drawing the carpark. The son of Magnus resumed in January for a dominant win in Toowoomba but has since been unable to return to the winner’s stall; running third in his three most-recent appearances. This is a step up in class and he’ll need to find something else to justify his current market position.
One horse that appeals at her current price is first emergency Pleasantries ($14), who has gained a start after the early scratching of Wudang Blade. Pleasantries has only made two appearances at the races so far, but she is also yet to taste anything by success and was last seen winning a 1200m race in Sydney in October. She’ll need to show some early pace from a wide draw, but she’s treated well at the weights and can make a winning return to the races.
I will be having a small each-way bet on Pleasantries at double-figures.
A quality field of two-year-olds will assemble in Race 3 and we will see several juveniles set for black type targets step out.
Cuddle Me Tight failed to justify a huge go in betting when second at Toowoomba on debut a fortnight ago, but she should take plenty of benefit from the experience into this race and is the $3.20 favourite at publish. The Love Conquers All filly is drawn ideally in barrier 2 and will take plenty of beating.
Sizzling Ace ($4.40) returns from a let-up and on her performances during the Brisbane summer, could prove to be over the odds at her current price. The Sizzling filly debuted for fourth in the Listed Calaway Gal Stakes and went on to finish sixth in the Group 3 McLachlan Stakes and second in the Coastline BMW Plate. This is a step back in class from all of those races and she has trialled well ahead of her return.
The field for Race 4 is one of the most open on the Tails Stakes card and it is tough to analyse from a betting perspective.
Savwell resumed for three-consecutive race wins, but has only been fair of late and will need to improve if he is to justify his $4.40 favouritism. The son of Savabeel has a strong career record and jockey Damian Browne should be able to find a good position in transit from barrier 2.
Char Char ($9.50) has been charged with overcoming a potentially sticky draw, but he looks to be over the odds at his current quote. The Charge Forward gelding is yet to finish outside the first three through five starts this time and has the added bonus of Jeff Lloyd in the saddle. This is clearly his toughest task to date, but he is worth of a shot at Doomben Saturday grade and is worth consideration.
There has been a number of early scratchings from the field for Race 5 and first emergency A Shin Rook ($3.50) has gained a start, and will be extremely difficult to beat. The Japanese import will be making his Australian debut in this race, but he was outstanding in his homeland and if he brings any of his previous form to Doomben, he should prove too classy.
My Little Flicka ($9) is chasing a third-consecutive win and looks to be over the odds at her current quote.
A capacity field has been taken for this year’s Mick Dittman Plate, but it looks to be a race in two between the resuming Whypeeo ($2) and Godolphin colt Marble ($3.40).
Whypeeo has been a strong and consistent performer throughout his entire racing career to date and will take his position in this field after trialling extremely well. The son of I Am Invincible finished third in a Canterbury sprint over 1100m upon resuming in summer, before returning to Queensland to win the Listed Gold Edition Plate; beating Pierata. The horse was last seen finishing fourth in the Magic Millions 3YO Guineas and on that form, he’ll be extremely difficult to beat.
Marble has the advantage of race fitness, but will need to overcome the outside barrier in his bid to win his first black type start. The Exceed And Excel colt delivered a smart field a near four-length defeat at Rosehill Gardens on April 2nd and will only improve third-up in this race.
I prefer the slightly longer quote for Marble in this race and I will be having a small bet on the nose, but not with complete confidence.
A smart field of sprinters will step out in another quality edition of the Ascot Handicap and there is a case to be made for several horses at odds, but race favourite Amanaat ($2.50) should prove extremely difficult to beat once again. Formerly saddled by the Lindsay Park team, Amanaat has won seven of nine starts since transferring to the care of Ben Currie and was a dominant winner of the Listed Weetwood Handicap a fortnight ago. He’ll be at peak fitness third-up here.
Victorian raider Mr Sneaky ($4.20) has terrific form in races harder than this and could prove to be over the odds at his current quote. The High Chaparral gelding finished a close second in the Group 1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes in spring and resumed this year for a close second in the Group 2 Australia Stakes. He’s been freshened-up since his last run for sixth in the Group 1 Futurity Stakes and absolutely flies early in his preparations.
Charlie Boy ($26), Hopfgarten ($21) and Sebring Sun ($20) are all capable of getting into the money at longer quotes.
An impressive field has been drawn to this year’s Tails Stakes and this will be the first occasion that we will see a number of horses step for major staying races in the Brisbane Winter Carnival in action.
This is short of Chocante’s best distance, but the horse has a class edge over most of his rivals here and would not look out of place in the winner’s stall at $8.50. The son of Shocking won the Group 2 Brisbane Cup during last year’s carnival before ran a smart third in the Group 1 The Metropolitan in Sydney during spring.
Jumbo Prince ($14) is ready to peak in fitness third-up here and will appreciate a step up to a mile. The Outback Prince entire flew home to finish third in the Weetwood Handicap a fortnight ago and will take a position back in the field from his wide draw on Saturday, before calling on his turn of foot late.
The consistent Aqua Vite ($8) has not missed a place through his last six starts and while he faces a rise in class, he has a fitness edge over a lot of his rivals and will enjoy a return to a mile. The Northern Meteor gelding will need some luck early from a sticky draw, but will carry only 54kgs and represents great value at current odds.
There is a number of talented horses set to step out in the last on Tails Stakes Day, but it does look like Mr Marbellouz’s ($2.05) race to lose. The Love Conquers All gelding has won six of his seven race starts to date and has won by no less than two-and-a-half lengths this time in. He is drawn ideally on the rails and should just be winning.
Oink ($14) is a proven first-up performer and is worth consideration at each-way odds. The Sebring gelding has won two of his five first-up starts and placed on almost every other occasion. He is drawn ideally in barrier 3 and not without a hope of an upset.
Kimberley Star will have her first start for leading Brisbane trainer Tony Gollan and while she hasn’t been seen at the races for more than a year, she looks over the odds at $34 after trialling well.
It is simply impossible to tip against Mr Marbellouz, but I will also be having an each-way bet on Oink.