Fifteen sprinters will step out in Saturday’s Group 1 Newmarket Handicap (1200m) at Flemington and it is shaping as a typically open and lucrative race from a betting perspective.
Merchant Navy is Group 1 winner at the course and distance of the Newmarket Handicap 2018 and at the time of publish is the $4.50 race favourite.
The Fastnet Rock colt has shown above-average ability throughout his entire racing career so far and won each of his first four races upon debuting in 2017, including both the Listed Anzac Day Stakes (1400m) and Group 3 McNeil Stakes (1200m).
He failed to fire when tenth in the Group 1 Golden Rose (1400m) at Rosehill on September 23rd and subsequently jumped a $21 shot in the Coolmore Stud Stakes, but produced a big turn to beat Invincible Star and Formality.
Merchant Navy resumed this time for a credible third in the Group 2 Rubiton Stakes (1100m) at Caulfield on February 10th and will be extremely difficult to beat in the Newmarket Handicap with natural improvement.
Redkirk Warrior ($6.50) continued his outstanding affiliation with the Flemington straight when he pipped Redzel on the line in the Group 1 Black Caviar Lightning Stakes (1000m) first-up and he is currently the sole occupant of the second line of Newmarket Handicap betting.
The Notnowcato gelding became the first horse in a century to win the Newmarket Handicap first-up last autumn, but his form sharply tailed off through two subsequent autumn starts and he was sent to the paddock.
Again resuming for a dominant win in the Group 2 Bobbie Lewis Quality (1200m) at Flemington in spring, Redkirk Warrior finished towards the tail of the field in both The Everest (1200m) and Group 1 Darley Classic (1200m) in spring and was sent to the paddock with a view towards the major Autumn Carnival sprints.
He is yet to show much second-up since arriving in Australia, but this is undoubtedly his best chance of breaking the hoodoo to date.
Interestingly only two other runners, Brave Smash and Rich Charm are currently available at single-figure Newmarket Handicap odds and the classy sprinters are tied on the third line at $7 quotes respectively.
Brave Smash has been outstanding since transferring to the care of Darren Weir in spring and he represents terrific value at his current Newmarket Handicap odds.
The Tosen Phantom entire finished a close second behind Vega Magic in the Listed Regal Roller Stakes (1200m) upon debuting in August, before flying home to take out the Listed Chandler Macleod Stakes (1200m) second-up.
Ending his campaign with consecutive placings in the Listed Testa Rossa Stakes (1200m) and The Everest, Brave Smash clearly required the run when tailing off to finish fifth in the Group 2 Australia Stakes (1200m), but has since finished third in the Group 1 CF Orr Stakes (1400m) and won the Group 1 Futurity Stakes (1400m).
There is a something of a query over his stepping back in distance here, but he is capable of finding himself right in the finish on class alone.
Rich Charm has gained cult hero status through his recent preparations and is sure to gain plenty of attention in betting on Newmarket Handicap Day.
The Danerich gelding resumed in spring for a credible fourth in the Le Pine Funerals Handicap (1100m) at Caulfield, before producing consecutive wins in the Listed Italktravel Stakes (1200m) and Group 2 Multiplier Stakes (1200m).
Rich Charm is another horse that has taken wholesale benefit from his first-up run for fourth in the Rubiton Stakes and will relish a return to the straight.
There is plenty of value around every runner in Newmarket Handicap betting and you can take advantage of the best odds across the board right here at Neds!