There’s no Group 1 racing in Melbourne this weekend, but we are still set for an exciting card at Flemington for 2018 Blamey Stakes Day.
Its been a fine week in Melbourne and we are set to race on a Good 4 on Blamey Stakes Day, while the rail will be set out seven metres around the entire course.
Nine mares remain in contention for Race 1 on Blamey Stakes Day following the early scratching of El Rada.
Quilista ($3) ran a credible eight in the Group 1 Oakleigh Plate (1100m) last time out and is a deserving favourite to win this race. The daughter of Scandal Keeper could enjoy the run of the race from barrier 4 and has terrific early speed. She looks to have a fitness edge over many of her rivals here and a class edge over more. With Mark Zahra aboard, she’s our Best Bet on Blamey Stakes Day.
The resuming French Emotion ($6) has received steady support this week, while Hear The Chant ($3.10) will carry winning form into the race and looms as Quilista’s biggest danger.
The field of twelve confirmed for Race 2 is open, but only his last performance the Tony McEvoy-trained Scarecrow ($3.20) should prove tough to beat. The Delago Deluxe gelding won each of his first two starts upon resuming and while he faded in the late stages of the Group 3 CS Hayes Stakes (1400m), responded with a strong win over 1400m at HQ a fortnight ago. He is rock-hard fit, drawn ideally and will be looming in the final straight.
Sanctioned ($12) failed to fire first-up, but will be far-better for the experience and could be over the odds at his current price, while Muraahib ($7.50) is a live chance of going one-better than his impressive last-start performance for second behind Scarecrow in the Saintly Handicap (1400m).
A smart field of three-year-olds has been taken for Race 3 and there is a case to be made for more than half of the pack.
Two horses at odds who have a good record down the straight are Limestone ($8.50) and Ploverset ($12) and they have drawn into this field in barriers 11 and 12 respectively.
Limestone broke through for her maiden race win when she beat Black Caviar’s daughter Oscietra to the line down the Flemington straight in early 2017 and she ended her 2017 campaign fourth in the Group 1 Coolmore Stud Stakes (1200m). The daughter of Helmet is sure to have taken plenty of benefit from her first-up run in February and her wide draw might not actually be a bad thing.
Ploverset won the Listed Football Stakes (1000m) down the Flemington straight on debut and resumed in spring for a smart third behind Crown Witness and Catchy in the Group 3 Quezette Stakes (1100m) most notably.
Godolphin filly Demerara ($2.50) resumed for an impressive win in the Musk Creek Farm BM78 (1000m) and will be extremely difficult to beat here. The daughter of Commands has won four of her six career starts and will only improve second-up.
I will be backing Demerara on the nose, but will also have an each-way saver on Limestone at her current quote.
Nine two-year-old fillies will step out in the Thoroughbred Breeders’ Stakes and only three runners have previously tasted success at the races.
Lindsay Park’s horses have been absolutely flying of late and they will be offered a great shot at another black type race here with Khulaasa ($2.25). The Epaulette filly has finished second in her two career starts to date, including the Listed Asian Executive Stakes (1100m) last time out.
Sundarbans ($6) is another horse that has so-far finished second in two career starts and she is primed for another strong performance third-up here. This race is a step up in class for the Sepoy filly, but she ran a strong second to Metronome over 1200m at Moonee Valley last time out and can frank that form by winning here.
It’s a small and talent-rich field that has been confirmed for this year’s Blamey Stakes, but it really does look like a race in two between Darren Weir stable mates Tosen Stardom ($2.15) and Humidor ($2.50).
Tosen Stardom has been a strong and consistent performer throughout his entire racing career to date, but he found his best condition to date through the recent Spring Carnival; claiming wins in both the Group 1 Toorak Handicap (1600m) and Group 1 Emirates Stakes (2000m). The son of Deep Impact ran a smart second in the Group 1 Futurity Stakes (1400m) last time out and is probably the most effective horse in the Blamey Stakes field at a mile.
Humidor ($2.50) came within a head of beating Winx in the Cox Plate last year and is a live chance here on class alone. The Teofilo gelding resumed for fourth in the Futurity last time out and will also be ready to fire second-up here.
Tasmanian raider Hellova Street ($8) will give them something to chase, but he simply does not have the class of the two Weir horses and will need to produce a career-best performance to win.
A smart group of thirteen stayers will step out in this 2000m Benchmark 80 race and there is a case to be made for more than half the field.
Macedon Lodge’s horses are absolutely flying this season and Sherlock Holmes ($12) looms as a live chance in this race at odds. The Galileo gelding was a strong and consistent performer through the recent Spring Carnival and has been set for some lofty targets again this time. I like that Liam Howley has chosen to launch the horse’s campaign over 2000m and with even luck in running, he can go close.
He Ekscels ($4.80) is seeking his third win from as many starts this time and should be right in the finish again on Saturday. The Ekraar gelding is bred to relish the conditions of this race, but this is a pretty big step up in class and will need to improve again if he is to win.
The field for the March Stakes is an open one from a betting perspective, but Overshare ($5) saluted for us last time he ran and I am happy to follow him again in this race. The Team Hawkes-trained three-year-old was a smart performer in spring and won the Listed McKenzie Stakes (1200m) most notably. The son of I Am Invincible needed the run when he faded to finish ninth in the Inglis Dash first-up, but he has since finished second in the Group 3 Manfred Stakes (1200m) and won the Group 3 Zeditave Stakes (1200m) and won’t have an issue taking up the running from the rails draw and with only 52.5kgs in tow.
Race 8 has also drawn an open field and there is several live chances, but I am leaning towards Abyssinian ($8) at a genuine each-way quote. Abyssinian got her racing career off to a flying start with consecutive wins in 1200m races at Cranbourne and Pakenham, and she simply got too far back in the Pedders Suspension BM70 (1200m) at Moonee Valley on February 16th, but produced her best work late to finish fifth. Having run a strong second to Kaching in the Schweppes Grand BM70 (1600m) last time out, she looks like she’ll relish the mile and can return to winning form here.
At the time of publish, it’s $6 the field for the final race on Blamey Stakes Day and I am keen to take Highland Beat at a $9 quote. The son of Exceed And Excel has been a smart performer throughout his entire racing career to date and is undoubtedly at his best over 1200m. Highland Beat resumed this time for third over 1100m at Moonee Valley on February 3rd before weathering a tough run in transit to finish third in the Summer Sprint (1200m) on March 2nd. His wide draw is something of a concern, but he’d probably settle back in the field anyway and he’ll enjoy the wide Flemington track.