The AFL season is around the corner and we’ve done some early season analysis on the competition.
2017 minor premiers the Crows are the early favourite at the top of the line at $5.50. With a relatively unchanged list the Swans ($6) are expected to be in the mix for the flag.
The return of Gary Ablett to Geelong ($8) means the Cats are banking on a bumper 2018. The Tigers ($8) have the goods to go back to back. Port Adelaide at $10 represents some good value to shake-up the competition. Port have picked up some handy acquisitions in the off-season to assemble a formidable list.
Adelaide Crows
Adelaide have looked to put the disappointment of 2017 behind them with the recruitment of Bryce Gibbs. The Crows finished 2017 as minor premiers, only to fall when it mattered most. Adelaide will be looking to the experience of Rory Sloane and Josh Jenkins to bring home the silverware in 2018. Taylor Walker and diminutive forward Eddie Betts must perform for the Crows to be a force. The Crows have one of the most potent forward lines in the league. Expect the Crows to dominate the regular season and look to go one better.
2017 Result: 2nd
2018 Prediction: 1st
Brisbane Lions
The Lions are setting the bar low in terms of expectations for their young list. Chris Fagan is faced with the task of improving on the 2017 results. The acquisition of former Hawthorn skipper Luke Hodge gives the Lions the chance to develop their younger players. Alex Witherden emerged as a key player in 2017. Daniel Rich provides some much-needed drive in defence and there are signs of promise from youngster Hugh McCluggage. 2018 will prove to be a developmental year for the Lions. If they can improve on 2017 then this will please the Lions faithful.
2017 Result: 18th
2018 Prediction: 15th
Carlton
Brendan Bolton’s men face another long year with the loss of Bryce Gibbs to Adelaide and Sam Docherty to injury. Marc Murphy and Sam Cripps will combine with Giants recruit Matthew Kennedy in the middle of the park. Carlton have one of the worst forward lines in the league and it will be difficult for the Blues to trouble teams in the top eight without a key forward target. Don’t be surprised to Matthew Kreuzer floating in the forward line for the Blues in 2018. The Blues will struggle and if there isn’t an improvement then Brendan Bolton could be in the firing line.
2017 Result: 16th
2018 Prediction: 14th
Collingwood
Collingwood have been continually hurt by an injury crisis over the last couple of seasons and constant speculation to coach Nathan Buckley’s future. The Magpies will be hoping for a return to form from the mercurial Daniel Wells. Adam Treloar and Traylor Adams add grunt to the midfield. The Pies have forward targets in the form of Mason Cox and Darcy Moore. The Pies will cause the sides in the top eight some problems but will need to be able to show some consistency on the road to be a wildcard for the top eight. Expect the Pies to stay in the middle of the pack in 2018 with a mid-table finish.
2017 Result: 13th
2018 Prediction: 9th
Essendon
Essendon turned out to be one of the most aggressive teams in the trade period. Jake Stringer, Devon Smith and Adam Saad were added to the Bombers list. John Worsfold faces the dilemma of fitting the talented trio into his best 22. Stringer provides a proven goal kicking option on the forward line. Worsfold have some exciting talent coming through the ranks in the form of Joe Daniher and Connor McKenna. The Bombers were good enough to make a finals appearance in 2017. With some new faces, Essendon will be wanting to improve on last season’s effort.
2017 Result: 8th
2018 Prediction: 8th
Fremantle Dockers
The Dockers had a season to forget in 2017 and coach Ross Lyon could be in trouble if the side doesn’t perform. Dockers captain Nate Fyfe will be desperate to recapture the form that saw him win the 2015 Brownlow Medal. If Fyfe and ruckman Aaron Sandilands stay fit, then the Dockers have a midfield that can do some damage to the opposing teams. The Dockers will be hoping that a fresh start at Optus stadium will bring about a change in fortunes. Fremantle will improve in what will undoubtedly be a year in transition. Don’t expect the Dockers to set the world on fire, there would have to be a dramatic improvement for them to see any type of finals action in September.
2017 Result: 14th
2018 Prediction: 13th
Geelong
Make no mistake, it’s a premiership or bust for the Cats. With the return of Gary Ablett to Geelong, the Cats will have the third oldest list in the competition. With a midfield that includes the likes of Brownlow Medallist Patrick Dangerfield and Joel Selwood. The Cats have no injury concerns heading into the first round, but if either Dangerfield or Selwood miss large chunks of the competition then they could be in trouble. Geelong’s second-tier players have struggled to have an impact in past seasons, and it’s difficult to see that changing. Anything short of a premiership will be considered a failure by the Cats in 2018. Gary Ablett has seen limited game time in the last two seasons with the Gold Coast. The Cats will make the finals but will struggle to match the younger teams in the top eight.
2017 Result: 3rd
2018 Prediction: 5th
Gold Coast Suns
New Gold Coast Coach is in for a tough season with major question marks over the Suns squad. Forward Tom Lynch remains a vital part of the organisation and is in line to become the AFL’s first two-million-dollar man. If Dew can get Lynch to put pen to paper on a new agreement, then it will be a promising start to life on the coast. Lachie Weller could provide a spark for the Suns after moving over from Fremantle. The Suns need to demonstrate some promise for the future. The Suns will be wanting to improve their on-field performance after losing Gary Ablett at the end of 2017.
2017 Result: 17th
2018 Prediction: 16th
Greater Western Sydney
After back-to-back preliminary finals losses, the Giants will be looking to go one better in 2018. The Giants still have one of the best young lists in the competition despite losing the likes of Devon Smith and the experience of Steven Johnson and Shane Mumford. The Giants were derailed by injuries at the business end of the season. If they can get more out of Ryan Griffen, Jeremy Cameron and Brett Deledio then you should see the Giants will be in the mix for their first flag.
2017 Result: 4th
2018 Prediction: 2nd
Hawthorn
The Hawks are very much still in the midst of a major rebuild. Inspirational skipper Luke Hodge has moved onto the Brisbane Lions. The club’s 2018 fortunes will be shaped by the fitness of Jaegar O’Meara. Touted as the next Chris Judd, O’Meara has struggled to live up to expectations as he been hampered by persistent knee injuries. Cyril Rioli will be dangerous up forward, but they’ll need Shane Burgoyne to rediscover that x-factor. The Hawks won’t be back for the finals this year, but the signs could be good for 2019.
2017 Result: 12th
2018 Prediction: 10th
Melbourne Demons
Melbourne struggled with the idea of playing finals football in 2017 and choked at the last hurdle. The Dees will be hoping to go one better in 2018. With a list that includes Jesse Hogan, Jack Viney, Max Gawn and Angus Bradshaw the Dee’s have the ingredients of an exciting young side. Despite the talent, the Demons have struggled for any type of consistency. Experienced opponents know that these kids can be easily shaken.
2017 Result: 9th
2018 Prediction: 11th
North Melbourne
Don’t expect to see the Kangaroos will be bouncing up the ladder in 2018. Expect there to be some pain as the Roos embark on a full rebuild of their ageing list. Brad Scott will be under pressure early if he side fails to perform. The side is struggling for depth in the midfield and they will be quickly exposed by younger and hungrier opposition. The Roos will be lucky to nab a mid-table finish at best and the early season favourites for the wooden spoon.
2017 Result: 15th
2018 Prediction: 18th
Port Adelaide
The Power were one of the real movers and shakers in the trade period. Tom Rockliff, Steven Motlop and Jack Watts come into a side that is brimming with premiership potential. The Power suffered a last-minute loss to West Coast in the elimination final and will be banking on going further in 2018. Power coach Ken Hinkley knows that anything less than a top-four finish will not be good enough. If the Power continues with their style of football from 2017 then a Grand Final appearance is a real possibility.
2017 Result: 7th
2018 Prediction: 3rd
Richmond
To the surprise of many league pundits, the Tigers roared in 2017. No one expected the men from Punt Road to walk away with the silverware at the end of the season. The Tigers dominated from start to finish. Dustin Martin carved out his own slice of history becoming one of only six players in the history to win both the Brownlow and Normsmith medal. The Tigers are young enough and good enough to do it all again. The Tigers will become the hunted in 2018. Like the Bulldogs, the Tigers could discover that the pressure can become too much for second season Cinderella’s. The Tigers will play finals football but will struggle to recapture the magic of last season’s fairytale.
2017 Result: 1st
2018 Prediction: 6th
St Kilda
Without the likes of Nick Reiwoldt and Leigh Montagna, the Saints will struggle to be in the mix for finals action. With the Bulldogs making the premiership breakthrough in 2017, the Tigers last season, don’t expect it to be the Saints year anytime soon. There are a few diamonds on the Saints list, but it will be some time before we see them turn potential into premiership cups. The Saints will improve in 2018 but won’t be banging down the door of the top eight anytime soon.
2017 Result: 11th
2018 Prediction: 17th
Sydney Swans
The Swans list has not undergone a dramatic change in 2018. Kurt Tippet has been forced to retire but the core of the Swans list has been retained. The Swans will be there again in September. After losing the first six games of 2017, expect the Swans to get off to a flyer in round one. Josh Kennedy, Dan Hannebery give the Swans one of the best midfields in the competition. With Buddy Franklin at the top of the square, the Swans are every chance of going deep into the Finals.
2017 Result: 5th
2018 Prediction: 4th
West Coast Eagles
The Eagles are a side in transition. The loss of two Brownlow medal winners will leave a hole in any side. The retirements of Sam Buttler, Matt Priddis, Sam Mitchell and Jon Giles leave opportunities for youngsters to step-up. The Eagles hopes for the finals rest on the shoulders of ruckman Nic Natanui. The Eagles struggled without their star in 2017. The Eagles will blood the likes of Willie Rioli and Jake Waterman this season. The stars will need to align for the Eagles to have any chance of finals football. A mid-table finish outside seems like a good result.
2017 Result: 6th
2018 Prediction: 12th
Western Bulldogs
Despite the retirements of Travis Cloke, Bob Murphy and Matthew Boyd the Dogs will make a return to the finals in 2018. 2017 provided a harsh reality check for a talented playing group suffering from a premiership hangover. Jack Trengrove and Hayden Crozier come into a side that is filled with potential but short on discipline. Luke Beveridge asserted his authority in the off-season by punting Jake Stringer to Essendon. Expect the Dogs to rebound in 2018 with a strong showing in September finals action.
2017 Result: 10th
2018 Prediction: 7th