2018 Black Caviar Lightning Stakes Day will take place at Flemington on Saturday and we are set for another outstanding nine-race card.
The rail will be set in the True position around the entire Flemington course on Black Caviar Lightning Stakes Day and at the time of publish, the track is rated a Good 3.
Ten two-year-olds will step out in the first on Lightning Stakes Day and it looms as an interesting race.
Two horses will make their competitive debuts in the races, including current market mover Nuclear Blitz, who is $8.50 into $7 at the time of publish. Interestingly, the Sepoy filly has not trialled publicly leading into this run.
There is probably a case to be made for most of this field and with little to go off, I am happy to watch this group go around and wait for another day.
Imperator Augustus ($3.40) returned to winning form at Kyneton last start and with improvement, can make a successful transition into city grade in the second on Lightning Stakes Day. The Roman Emperor gelding has been lightly-raced in recent months and clearly enjoyed the space when he mustered a big turn of foot to win the 1850m race by a head. A step up to 2000m is ideal and he will enjoy a 5kg drop in weights.
The Mighty Jrod ($8) has been racing competitively amongst similar company to this and can figure in the finish again. The Pentire gelding was beaten by some pretty handy horses at Caulfield last weekend and had every right to drop out of contention following a tough run on-pace.
Last-start winner Khutulun ($4.60) will have plenty of options in transit from the rails draw on Saturday and warrants interest again. The Soldier’s Tale mare has returned to peak condition this time and will be extremely difficult to beat again.
An open field of ten fillies and mares will step out in Race 3 and there is several live chances amongst the group.
Enver Jusufovic’s horses have been in terrific form recently and the stable is offered another good opportunity to win at Saturday grade with Sharing ($2.90). Sharing has failed to finish outside of the places at her three most-recent starts and flew home from the tail of the field to finish second over 1400m at Caulfield last time. She will relish racing on the wide Flemington track and this appears to be perfect placement of the mare.
Bellaria ($8.50) has been racing well amongst lesser company this time in and could be the value in this field. The Magnus mare was last seen winning a Sandown 1400m race on February 7th and with even luck in transit, can continuing successfully stepping through the grades via this race.
The field for the fourth race on Saturday is packed with talented and we are set for a particularly exciting contest.
Kings Will Dream ($2.05) is seeking a third-consecutive win and is a justifiable occupant of the top line of betting. The Casamento gelding is yet to taste anything by success since debuting for Darren Weir and has won both his races in Australia by a combined five lengths.
There is a number of horses at genuine each-way odds in this race that could realistically find their way into the money, including both Sin To Win ($15) and The Avenger ($11).
Sin To Win has not been seen at the races since November, but he was outstanding throughout spring and typically comes to hand quickly. The fact that the Lindsay Park team have elected to launch his campaign at a mile suggests that he is very forward and he could enjoy the run of the race from barrier 4.
The Avenger was flat two runs back and while he missed the start in the Bucking Bull BM78 (1600m) a fortnight ago, managed to run on well to finish second behind So Poysed. Damien Oliver retains the ride and The Avenger does look to be a touch over the odds here.
I am happy to back Kings Will Dream to continue his winning run of form here, but will also have a small each-way bet on Sin To Win at current odds.
The scratching of leading contender Oak Door has really opened up the market for Race 5 and there is a case to be made for several runners here.
Ken’s Dream ($4.40) produced a credible performance to run on for fourth upon stepping up to weight-for-age in the Group 2 Australia Stakes (1200m) on Australia Day and he should prove extremely difficult to beat here. The Dream Ahead gelding flew home to win the Better Beyond Plate (1100m) at Flemington by close to three lengths a fortnight prior to the Australia Stakes and he is our Best Bet this weekend.
All of Lucky Liberty ($10), Atlantic City ($8) and Handsome Thief ($3.30) have the ability to figure in this race on class alone.
The second black type race of the day will see eleven three-year-old fillies step out for this year’s edition of The Vanity.
Group 1 winner Aloisia ($3) will launch her Autumn Carnival campaign in this race and at the time of publish, is race favourite. The daughter of Azamour has generally required a run or two to find her best form and given her trialled pretty terribly at Cranbourne on February 5th, she really does look like a false favourite amongst this company.
One horse that warrants interest at her current price is Godolphin filly Banish ($9). Banish was caught at the tail of the field in a 1200m race at Cranbourne first-up in spring, but mustered a huge turn of foot to finish over the top of her rivals. Having ended her preparation with an impressive win in the Group 2 Moonee Valley Fillies Classic (1600m), the daughter of Lonhro will be ridden by regular hoop Craig Williams and has drawn the rails.
A key lead-in to the Group 1 Australian Guineas, the CS Hayes Stakes has drawn a capacity field of sixteen to Flemington on Saturday.
In what is potentially the most open betting race on the Lightning Stakes card, Cliff’s Edge is set to jump favourite and is currently available at a $5 quote. The Canford Cliffs colt was outstanding throughout a busy Spring Carnival campaign and resumed this time for a pretty easy win in the Group 3 Manfred Stakes (1200m) a fortnight ago. He’ll only improve second-up and stepping out in trip, but may need to use some petrol early to take a position on pace from barrier 13.
Main Stage ($21) was tough and impressive throughout spring, but may need the run, while stable mate Sully ($11) will launch a Derby bid in this race, but is capable of a sharp first-up showing.
Éclair Sunshine ($18) is probably at his best distance here and appears to be over the odds at his current quote. The All Too Hard gelding came within a whisker of beating Royal Symphony in the Listed Pin & Win Stakes over course and distance in spring and will take plenty of improvement from his first-up run for fourth at Morphettville on February 3rd.
Saturday’s feature race has drawn a typically strong field of sprinters, including The Everest winner Redzel ($1.75). The Snitzel gelding found career-best condition in 2017; winning each of the Group 1 Doomben 10,000 (1200m), The Everest (1200m) and the Group 1 Darley Classic (1200m), but he will actually be seeking a seventh-consecutive win in this. There is simply no denying his form and ability and he probably just wins the Lightning Stakes.
It’s worthwhile considering several other horses to be right in the finish of the Black Caviar Lightning Stakes and Redkirk Warrior looks to be the value in the field at a current $13 quote. Redkirk Warrior has won both the Group 1 Newmarket Handicap (1200m) and Group 2 Bobbie Lewis Quality (1200m) down the Flemington straight at his two most-recent first-up runs and there’s nothing to say he can’t replicate those performances here. Regan Bayliss will look to go straight the front with the Notnowcato gelding and will give them something to chase, alongside the likes of Ball Of Muscle and Super Too.
Three-year-old Formality ($10) is the unknown factor in this field and she does have form down the straight, having finishing third in the Group 1 Coolmore Stud Stakes (1200m) in spring. The Fastnet Rock filly is probably at her best at 1200m, but she’ll carry only 53.5kgs here and has the ability.
Reigning champion Terravista ($7) is now without a hope, while Missrock ($21) is also at her best down the straight, but will need to produce a career-best performance.
I’ll be backing Redzel on the nose, but also have a couple of small each-way bets on Redkirk Warrior and Formality.
CLICK HERE for our filly Black Caviar Lightning Stakes betting update
There’s plenty of value on offer in the last race on Black Caviar Lightning Stakes Day as several horses will be launching their autumn campaigns.
Manolo Blahniq ($3.50) has a fitness edge on plenty of his rivals here and will carry winning form into the race. The Jimmy Choux gelding produced a big turn of foot to win the John Moule BM84 (1400m) by three lengths a fortnight ago and should be better suited to the conditions at Flemington.
Chamois Road ($9) has been racing well amongst strong company this time and can go close again, at great odds here. The Choisir gelding ran third in the Group 3 Standish Handicap (1200m) and second in the Listed Chester Manifold Stakes (1400m), before a luckless run for fourth in the Listed John Dillon Stakes (1400m) last time out.