Kensington Stakes Day Preview & Tips

Kensington Stakes Day Preview & Tips

Nine talent-rich races will be run at won at Flemington on Kensington Stakes Day and it looms as a potentially lucrative card from a betting perspective.

The rail has been set out 9 metres around the entire course and we are looking at ‘Good 3’ conditions on Kensington Stakes Day.

Bitalli Handicap (1800m)
No. 11 Mutarakem (Each Way)

Ten horses remain in contention for Race 1 following the early scratching of Carzoff. Trainer Chris Waller will still be offered two good chances in the race however, having accepted for both Le Juge and Mutarakem.

Le Juge has steadily built to the task through two starts since arriving in Australia and will be ready to peak third-up here. The five-year-old chased home the in-form Widgee Turf last time out and there is nothing of his quality confirmed in this field. Given that he is by Dansili, Le Juge will enjoy a step up to 1800m and is weighted well with only 55kgs in tow.

Mutarakem is seeking a third-consecutive race win after scoring at Sandown twice and he is drawn ideally in barrier 3. The Dubawi gelding also gets in ideally at the weights and will give them something to chase.

Willi Willi failed to fire last start, but should also enjoy the step up in trip and will go close again.

Doriemus Handicap (2500m)
No. 4 Goodwood Zodiac

Race 2 has also already received scratchings, but nine horses remain in contention and there is several live chances from a betting perspective.

Goodwood Zodiac has been racing well and is a horse that will enjoy the wide Flemington track this weekend. The Kodiac gelding flew home to finish a close second in the Chandler Macleod BM78 (2400m) on January 10th and will enjoy a slightly longer trip here, and has every chance of extending Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott’s terrific recent run of form.

Last Week has failed to finish worse than second through his four most-recent starts and will prove extremely difficult to beat again. The Tamayuz gelding took up the running at Moonee Valley on December 15th and never appeared in doubt before scoring a comfortable win. Last Week was tough to the line when second to Civil Disobedience on New Year’s Day and has reportedly enjoyed the three weeks between starts.

Patrobas Handicap (2000m)
No. 1 Civil Disobedience

Civil Disobedience has been racing in terrific form this time and looms as the one to beat in Race 3 at Flemington on Saturday. The Raise The Flag gelding has won three of his four most-recent starts, including a smart triumph over course and distance on January 1st. Should Last Week win Race 2 on Saturday, Civil Disobedience’s form will have been franked and he can go on with the job here.

Chain Of Fools mustered a big turn of foot to run home for fourth in the Listed Tasmanian Guineas (1600m) after missing the start last Friday, and he looks as though he’ll relish a step up in trip here. He can find a position closer to the pace from barrier 4 and is over the odds at his current price.

Dolly's Dream Handicap (2000m)
No. 3 Shenandoah (Each Way)

A smart field of fillies and mares has been taken for Race 4 and there is a case to be made for several runners.

Shenandoah was one of our best bets at Caulfield two weeks ago and the mare produced a tough performance to salute at $8 odds and she can repeat that performance here. The Darci Brahma mare was led to the lead by jockey Zac Spain and produce a strong sprint late to beat Addison by a head. She’s drawn ideally to take up the running and should only improve at 2000m.

Addison has also found good form of late and is set to start as race favourite here. The Jimmy Choux mare was a smart winner over a mile at Caulfield leading into her second behind Shenandoah last time out and will find herself right in the finish once more, with even luck in running.

Victorian Owner Gold Card Handicap (1600m)
No. 13 Vungers (Each Way)

A number of horses in Race 5 are making the step up to Saturday grade on Saturday and there is subsequently plenty of value to be found from a betting perspective.

At the time of publish, Krusty is a $4.80 favourite and he is a live chance of returning to winning form in this race. The Sebring gelding was a smart winner of the Darwin Guineas (1600m) in winter last year and has quickly returned to form on the turf this time; driving home to finish a close second over 1700m at Flemington last time out.

Vungers warrants interest and is more than worth consideration at genuine each-way odds. The Reset gelding has not returned to winning form through four starts this time, but he is also yet to miss a place and is probably offered his most ideal conditions to date in this race. A step up to a mile is ideal and while this does look to be a step up in quality, he does have upside.

NJT20Cricket.com.au Handicap (1200m)
No. 13 Just Hifalutin (Each Way)

The only capacity field of the day at Flemington on Saturday will step out in the sixth and it’s a particularly open betting affair.

Handsome Thief has garnished some interest since our market opened and firmed slightly into $3.40 favouritism. The Shamardal entire resumed for a credible third in the Jodie Taylor BM84 (1100m) at Caulfield on January 7th, but was slow away and will take wholesale improvement from the run. Barrier 16 is a concern, but Craig Williams is an ideal jockey to have for the conditions.

Just Hifalutin has been racing in career-best form and can produce another strong run at Flemington. The daughter of Reset won over 1200m at Moonee Valley in early December and has since finished second at the distance twice, amongst smart company. Ben Thompson can take a position within the field from barrier 11 and will look to utilize the horse’s big turn of foot on the wide Flemington course.

Inglis Dash (1100m)
No. 1 Overshare (Each Way)

Twelve classy three-year-olds will chase their share in a lucrative $250,000 set for the Inglis Dash, but it appears to be Nature Strip’s race to lose. The Nicconi gelding has only made four appearances at the races to date, but has posted three dominant wins; his two most-recent by close to six lengths each. His has class by the barrow-full and that, coupled with his fitness edge should prove too much for his rivals in this race.

One horse that is worth consideration at long odds is the Team Hawkes-trained Overshare. Overshare typically comes to hand quickly and posted a smart win in the Listed McKenzie Stakes (1200m) against strong company than this in spring. He might not win, but he is over the odds at a current $19/$3.50 quote and will have to do less work from the rails draw to find the pace, than a horse like Nature Strip.

best bet
Listed Kensington Stakes (1000m)
No. 4 Saracino

Only eight horses will step out in this year’s Kensington Stakes, but every horse has genuine claims in the race.

Former Hong Kong galloper Amber Sky will make his Australian debut in the race and has already received plenty of attention in our market. A Group 1 winner at the distance a few years ago, the son of Exceed And Excel clearly has the class to win this race, but it’s tough to line up his recent form and he has not been seen competitively for 10 months.

Lord Of The Sky scored a smart first-up win in the Group 3 Standish Handicap (1200m) at Flemington first-up and can go on with the job. The enigmatic sprinter will roll forward and will give them something to chase.

Saracino has reportedly shown plenty to trainer Mike Moroney in the lead-up to this race and is primed for a big first-up run. He failed to come up in the spring, but the fact that jockey Damien Oliver has elected to jump off Lord Of The Sky to ride Saracino is positive and the horse is a stakes winner down the Flemington straight previously.

VRC Young Members' Handicap (1400m)
The Avenger (Each Way)

The final race on the card is another open betting affair and there’s plenty of value to be had if you can find the right horse.

The Avenger was another horse that saluted for our best bets at Caulfield a fortnight ago and there is no reason why he cannot post another win here. The Avenger took a position off pace in the 1400m race and flew home to score a comfortable half-length win over Trogir at a $7 quote and he should only be better under the conditions at Flemington.