We’re racing at HQ on Saturday afternoon and the Listed Chester Manifold Stakes (1400m) headlines a strong nine-race Flemington card.
Race 1 – Meadow Mist Plate (1000m) – 12:30pm
Nine two-year-olds have been drawn to the first race at Flemington on Saturday and of those, only four have exposed form.
Godolphin juvenile Fake was a smart winner on debut at Gosford on debut and while he made a competitive transition to city racing when third at Caulfield in mid-December, failed to fire as favourite last time out. Fake has drawn ideally in barrier 1 and with Craig Williams in the saddle, can return to form.
John McArdle elected to scratch debutant Blue Hope from a mid-week race at Geelong and that may be saying something about his confidence in the horse’s condition and ability. The Statue Of Liberty colt has not had a public trial, but could receive the run of the race from gate three.
With so many debutants, there is plenty of winning potential across the board and I am happy to stay out of this from a betting perspective.
Tip: No Bet
Race 2 – Piping Lane Handicap (2000m) – 1:08pm
A small but smart field has been taken for Race 2 and there is a case to be made for every runner.
Group 1 winner Howard Be Thy Name flew home to finish a close second at Warnambool last time and should be at peak fitness for his fourth-up task here. The Redoute’s Choice entire will relish a step up in trip here and rates highly with Brad Rawiller in the saddle.
Stable mate Articus has been pretty disappointing this time and will need to improve tenfold if he is any chance in this company. The Areion gelding really has not lived up to the hype since arriving in Australia, but will appreciate running at 2000m once more.
Consistent gelding Second Bullet and South Australian raider Pretty Punk should both enjoy the conditions of this race and remain live chances.
Tip: No. 1 Howard Be Thy Name ($4.70)
Race 3 – Seascay Handicap (1700m) – 1:43pm
A strong field of Saturday-grade horses will contest Race 3, including evergreen and consistent gelding Jacquinot Bay. Jacquinot Bay has been up and racing for the best part of ten months, but has returned to a rich vein of form of late and can win here. The Galileo gelding boxed on to finish third in the Group 3 Eclipse Stakes (1800m) on November 18th and has since finished second in both the David Burke Memorial Handicap (1600m) and Listed Lord Stakes (1700m). Jockey Corey Parish will have plenty of early options from the rails draw and the conditions of this race will suit the ten-year-old to the ground.
Master Of Arts is sure to have taken plenty of benefit from his first-up run for fifth in the Lord Stakes and should be right in the finish here. The Mastercraftsman entire has been charged with carrying a race-high 60kgs, but is tough and will be ridden by John Allen.
Burrum’s Buzz is seeking and third-consecutive race win and could enjoy the run of the race from an inside draw. The team of Austy Coffey and son Harry has been extremely successful of late and they can continue that run of form with Burrum’s Buzz on Saturday.
Tip: No. 3 Jacquinot Bay ($4.40)
Race 4 – Craftsman Handicap (1400m) – 2:18pm
Eleven three-year-old fillies remain in contention for the Craftsman Handicap and the depth of talent confirmed means it is an extremely open race from a betting perspective.
Mick Price will saddle two live chances here in the form of Tagreeda and Shalwa, who have both been racing in terrific form this time. Tagreeda has failed to finish worse than second through four career starts and was last seen winning over 1500m at Sandown with complete ease on January 3rd. this is a step up in class, but she is a filly with plenty of upside and can go on with the job. Shalwa has only had two career starts, but is also yet to finish worse than second. The O’reilly filly is stepping into metro grade for the first time, but will slot in behind the pace from gate 9 and is capable of a big sprint.
The Lindsay Park-trained Shokora is seeking a third-consecutive race win and should prove difficult to hold out. The Niconni filly was an easy winner over 1300m at Sandown last time and while a step up in distance should be ideal, she’s been charged with carrying more weight and is clearly amongst tougher company here.
Tip: No. 4 Tagreeda – Each Way ($7.50/$2.40)
Race 5 – Rain Lover Handicap (1400m) – 2:53pm
Race 5 has drawn a sharp field of three-year-old sprinters and this is another instance whereby a case can be made for several horses.
The Darren Weir-trained Indian Thunder failed to run on when fifth at this course and distance last time, but was an easy winner at Morphettville Parks a fortnight prior. He’ll need to carry a race-high 60kgs, but should find a positive position in this small field.
Salsamor has been a strong and consistent performer for Busuttin Racing without returning to winning form this time, but he will be offered his chance here. The Tavistock colt will undoubtedly be better over more ground, but has had a freshen-up since his last appearance and has class over this field.
Crystal Spirit is another horse that warrants serious thought and three-year-old will be having his first go at 1400m here. Crystal Spirit has steadily stepped up in class through three starts this time in and is ready to peak in form. At the time of publish, the Bel Esprit gelding has received the greatest share of bets in our market is a clear $4.20 market mover.
Tip: No. 2 Salsamor ($4.20)
Race 6 – Arbroath Handicap (1100m) – 3:28pm
The only capacity field of the day will step out in Race 6 and it is another open affair from a betting perspective; offering punters plenty of value across the board.
At the time of publish, Strykinglee has been backed into $6 favouritism and should receive a gun run from barrier 2. The Stryker mare spotted her rivals a lead before finishing off well for fifth over 1100m on December 16th, but will be able to settle closer here.
The John McArdle-trained Bob Of The Head has been racing well this time and represents terrific value at genuine each-way odds. The Per Incanto gelding boxed on well to finish second over 1200m at Mornington last time out and should settle in behind the pace this time form a central draw.
Tip: No. 5 Bob Of The Head – Each Way ($8/$2.80)
Race 7 – Listed Chester Manifold Stakes (1400m) – 4:08pm
The feature race has drawn a classy and open field of horses and we are set for a great contest on Saturday afternoon.
Dollar For Dollar is in an outstanding run of form and is set to jump a clear race favourite here. The High Chaparral gelding has been given a freshen-up since his last start win in the Group 3 Chandler Macleod (1500m) on November 18th, but was a smart winner at each of his four most-recent starts. The five-year-old will receive all the favours from an ideal draw, but this is undoubtedly his biggest test to date.
The two topweights Burning Front and Gold Symphony both represents terrific value in our market and have the ability to overcome the handicapper.
Burning Front has been a strong and consistent performer for Darren Weir throughout a busy racing career; posting eighteen wins and twenty minors through a total of fifty-six starts. He hasn’t found winning form since May, but is as tough as they come and should be fighting out the finish once more.
Gold Symphony is a horse that generally improved with racing and he should be ready to peak third-up here. Peter & Paul Snowden have elected to space his runs this time and he’ll take wholesale improvement form his last-start fifth in the December Handicap (1400m) on the 23rd.
Tip: No. 2 Gold Symphony – Each Way ($9/$2.80)
Race 8 – Better Beyond Plate (1100m) – 4:48pm
A smart field of sprinters will step out in the penultimate on 2018 Chester Manifold Stakes Day.
Evergreen veteran Thermal Current has returned to racing in competitive form this time and should find himself right in the finish of this race, from an ideal draw. The Exceed And Excel gelding resumed for second behind mudlark Jungle Edge on heavy at Sandown and has since placed third in the Catanach’s Jewellers Handicap (1100m) and fourth in the Listed Christmas Stakes (1200m).
Princefamous will carry winning form into the race and is a live chance once more. The Fast ‘N’ Famous gelding strode clear of his rivals at Randwick last time, but will be having his first go down the straight here.
The enigmatic Mr Individual will make his competitive return in this race and is potentially over the odds, should he bring his best to race day. The Starspangledbanner gelding is generally strong first-up and may be suited to racing down the straight.
Tips: No. 1 Thermal Current ($4.40)
Small each-way bet on No. 8 Mr Individual ($19/$4.80)
Race 9 – Tauto Handicap (1400m) – 5:33pm
Fifteen horses will contest the final race on Chester Manifold Stakes Day and punters can take advantage of plenty of value here.
Soho Ruby will take winning form into this race and looms as a threat once again. The four-year-old flew home with 60kgs on her back to win over course and distance last time and will enjoy a drop to 56.5kgs, as well as an idea barrier.
Zascorceress is a mare that will improve the further she gets out in trip, but she’ll improve off her first-up run and is capable of a sharp run early in her campaign. The daughter of Zabeel has a good record at Flemington and ran a close second in the Group 3 The Schweppervescence (1600m) last autumn. She might not win, but she’s worth consideration at each-way odds.
Tips: No. 6 Soho Ruby ($4.40)
No. 2 Zasorceress – Each Way ($20/$5.50)